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2

Jul 2026

美元/日元跌破161，疲弱美国非农就业数据强化美联储鸽派押注，干预风险上升

非农爆冷拖累美元，USD/JPY跌至161附近；降息预期飙升、日方干预风险升温。策略：偏买USD/JPY看跌期权，或做EUR/USD跨式捕捉波动。

2

Jul 2026

黄金涨破4,100美元，疲弱美国非农拖累美元并降温美联储加息预期

非农爆冷拖累美元，金价冲上4,120涨2.2%！FedWatch显示9月加息概率降至51%，油价跌破70助降通胀；守住4,100成关键，期权布局看涨与做空美元。

2

Jul 2026

美国能源信息署报告称美国天然气库存增幅超预期，夏季需求风险逼近令期货承压

EIA天然气库存单周增870亿立方英尺，超预期利空压近月；但高温用电与LNG出口或托底。波动料升温，关注跨式/宽跨式及卖近买冬跨期策略。

2

Jul 2026

欧元走强，疲弱美国非农数据削弱美联储加息预期，美元承压

非农爆冷重定价美联储路径，美元指数回落，EUR/USD 升至约1.144。惟美通胀仍黏、欧元区更鸽，反弹或受限，期权布局防回调。

2

Jul 2026

英国央行官员曼恩暗示或将采取“积极”行动，服务业通胀黏性加剧降息押注复杂性

英伦银行委员曼放鹰：若通胀预期恶化不排除“行动主义”再加息。服务业通胀4.5%、薪资5.1%支撑高利率更久；英镑偏强，降息押注须谨慎。

2

Jul 2026

泰国迈入2026年第二季更稳健，出口提振前景；泰国央行维持利率于1.00%

泰国2Q26根基比预期稳：出口与科技投资撑场，内需仍弱。央行利率守1%并上调GDP。通胀供给驱动，泰铢区间震荡；偏好卖波动策略。

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