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2

Jul 2026

美国工厂订单跌幅小于预期，就业报告出炉前令美联储维持观望态度

美国5月工厂订单跌1.3%优于预期-1.8%，经济降温不崩塌。焦点转向6月非农18万；美联储偏观望。VIX或升至16，期权布局捕捉波动与横盘。

2

Jul 2026

每年审查《美墨加协定》直至2036年令墨西哥投资观望，推高比索风险溢价

美方放弃USMCA 16年延长，改为2036年前年度审查：短期贸易无碍，长期规则更不确定。墨西哥FDI走弱、风险溢价上升，比索波动率抬升，USD/MXN多头可布局。

2

Jul 2026

新西兰央行在大选前维持货币政策委员会人数为六；7月利率决议因僵局悬而未决

RBNZ大选前不增MPC成员，5月陷3-3僵局令7月议息更悬。通胀3.8%、GDP回升与年建许可+19%撑加息。市场仅定价

2

Jul 2026

美元/加元下滑，疲弱美国非农削弱美联储加息押注；油价走软限制加元涨幅

爆冷非农仅增5.7万且大幅下修，美元/加元跌至1.4180；Fed加息预期降温、隐波飙升。惟油价回落拖累加元，料1.4150-1.4350区间震荡。

2

Jul 2026

加拿大制造业PMI稳守在53以上，支撑加拿大央行谨慎立场及加元偏强走势

加拿大6月S&P Global制造业PMI微升至53，连续两月扩张。经济韧性或压低降息预期；油价坚挺助推加元，TSX工业与原材料板块可关注期权布局。

2

Jul 2026

欧洲央行考虑提高最低准备金率，考验欧元区流动性并推动Euribor-OIS利差走阔

欧洲央行或秋季上调最低准备金率，更多资金转入零利息篮子；Euribor/OIS利差已走阔，外围银行更受挤压。交易机会：押注短端利率更敏感上行。

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