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2

Jul 2026

英镑走强，疲弱的美国非农就业数据降温美联储加息预期，美元与美债收益率回落

美国非农爆冷拖累美元：英镑冲上10日高位1.3359，DXY跌至100.75、美债息回落。加息预期骤降，GBP/USD瞄准1.3413；期权策略主打限定风险。

2

Jul 2026

美国非农就业数据疲弱拖累美元跌至两周低点，银价触及周度区间顶部

非农爆冷拖垮美元，银价飙至周高61.15、日涨3.5%。但仍压在200/100日均线下，反弹或受限；关注61.50阻力、55.50支撑，谨慎布局卖波动率。

2

Jul 2026

美国4周期国库券收益率回落至3.605%，市场押注美联储更早降息

4周美债收益率微降至3.605%暗示降息定价升温：CPI 2.5%、GDP放缓支撑转鸽。策略偏科技房产看涨、可卖波动；警惕7月10日非农逆转短端预期。

2

Jul 2026

德国商业银行：美国就业数据趋软料促使美联储利率维持不变至2026年

美国6月就业仅增9.5万、通胀回落与油价下挫，德商银直言7月加息理由消失：今年至2026料利率不变，美元或转弱，低波动卖期权成机会。

2

Jul 2026

油价回落提振印尼盾，外国资金增持印尼债券，印尼市场持稳

油价回落令印尼外汇与债市趋稳但不强：USD/IDR跌破1.8万仍有承接。外资回流债券、股市偏淡；要盾升与10年息破7%，仍待更鸽派讯号。

2

Jul 2026

油价回调提振印尼盾债券，印尼盾趋稳；美元/印尼盾谨慎徘徊于18,000下方

油价回落助印尼盾与债市暂稳，但反弹力度有限。外资转买印尼盾债、股市偏淡；10年期利率需破7%才确认回升。关注美通胀与MSCI检讨，宜区间期权与债多股空对冲。

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