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Live Updates

2

Jul 2026

美国非农就业数据不及预期，强化降息押注，推升波动率，并推动股票、债券及美元仓位调整

6月非农仅增5.7万显著低于预期，就业动能降温强化降息定价：9月降息概率升至75%。权益审慎偏多并配置虚值看跌对冲，VIX、长债与非美货币受益。

2

Jul 2026

6月美国工资增速维持在3.5%，支撑美联储维持利率不变预期并稳定市场情绪

美国6月平均时薪同比增3.5%符合预期，薪资趋势平稳缓解成本冲击，强化软着陆叙事；利率短期按兵不动，VIX回落宜卖波动率，偏多美元。

2

Jul 2026

英镑兑日元自两个月高点回落，日元反弹引发日本干预猜测

英镑/日元冲高216回落至215附近，日元因干预猜测走强。技术面维持多头但216压制显著。利差支撑套息交易，建议期权对冲并警惕突发5日元级回撤风险。

2

Jul 2026

欧元/日元下挫逾100点，市场揣测日元因干预预期走强

EUR/JPY周四急挫逾100点，疑似东京口头或实盘干预触发日元走强。183.75成多空分水岭；跌破或指向183.17/182.45。假期前流动性趋薄，波动率上行，建议期权偏空配置、严控上行风险。

2

Jul 2026

BNY iFlow显示跨境客户转为低配日元，套息交易再度升温

BNY iFlow显示跨境资金自2024年四季度以来首转合计低配日元；干预效力受疑与美日政策分化推升套息回归。高波动下可择机以期权布局融资盘并控回撤风险。

2

Jul 2026

美元在6月美国非农就业数据公布前走弱，因美联储沃什持续强调通胀使其成为市场焦点

非农公布前DXY回落至101，就业预期降至11万、薪资或升温；美联储坚持数据依赖、通胀仍高，美元对意外值高度敏感，波动率或上行。

2

Jul 2026

英镑走强、美元走弱，市场等待美国非农就业数据以重塑美联储政策预期

非农前美元走弱推升英镑至1.3340。市场押注就业放缓与美联储定价再平衡，隐含波动率升至9.8%；建议以GBP/USD近端跨式期权捕捉双向波动。

2

Jul 2026

德国商业银行认为，美国非农就业报告对市场的影响力正在减弱，美联储关注重点仍在通胀

德国商业银行称：JOLTS改善但非农信号噪音上升，市场定价转向通胀；美联储更看核心PCE，美元对非农敏感度下降，期权波动溢价或收敛，策略宜转向CPI。

2

Jul 2026

欧元/英镑走弱逼近0.8550，欧元区通胀放缓削弱市场对欧洲央行7月加息预期

欧元区通胀超预期回落削弱ECB再加息押注，EUR/GBP跌至0.8550附近；英国薪资高企支撑BoE偏鹰。关注拉加德、贝利讲话与0.8500支撑破位风险。

2

Jul 2026

美元/日元自40年高位回落，日本干预传闻推升波动率并促使期权重新定价

美元/日元自163高位急挫至161，市场押注财务省干预，隐含波动率跃升。技术偏空，关注161/160支撑；策略偏空配置看跌期权，警惕CPI与日银鹰派冲击。

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