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Live Updates

2

Jul 2026

美元/加元回落至1.4190，市场静待美国非农就业数据并重新评估美联储政策前景

USD/CAD 回吐涨幅、徘徊 1.4190，市场屏息 6 月非农定价美联储降息路径；美国数据转弱压制美元，油价下行掣肘加元，期权隐波上行催生波动率交易机会。

2

Jul 2026

西班牙五年期国债拍卖收益率降至2.835%，市场押注欧洲央行降息提振需求

西班牙5年期国债拍卖均值收益率降至2.835%，融资成本下行；德西利差收窄至45bp、CDS至30bp，叠加ECB降息预期升温，风险溢价再压缩。

2

Jul 2026

欧元区通胀数据走软拖累欧元下挫，美联储政策分化主导今夏欧元/美元走势展望

欧元区通胀不及预期致欧元走弱，ECB 9月加息预期降温。市场聚焦美联储累加50bp与美元强势，EUR/USD或再测1.1300，年末有望反弹至1.16—1.18。

2

Jul 2026

欧元区通胀持续令利率前景维持偏紧西班牙10年期国债收益率在拍卖中小幅走高

西班牙10年国债拍卖中标收益率升至3.395%，通胀高企强化欧央行“高利率更久”预期，推升欧债收益率；利差收敛凸显再定价，布局空Bund期货并以IBEX35保护性看跌对冲。

2

Jul 2026

美国股指期货小幅走低，投资者静待6月非农就业数据并重新评估科技股领涨行情

美股股指期货走弱，市场在6月非农前谨慎观望；ADP与ISM偏弱强化经济降温预期。建议低位布局VIX、以QQQ看跌期权对冲科技高估值回撤，并关注防御板块轮动。

2

Jul 2026

欧元/美元反弹站上1.1400关口，疲弱美国数据打压美元；市场静待非农就业报告

欧元兑美元收复跌幅重返1.1400，弱于预期的美国就业与制造业数据压制美元；美联储抗通胀立场与地缘风险抬升不确定性，非农前或区间震荡，跨式期权捕捉波动。

2

Jul 2026

印度6月制造业PMI下修，强化印度央行按兵不动预期，美元兑印度卢比徘徊于95.25附近

印度6月制造业PMI终值下修至54.2，扩张显著放缓且通胀降温；市场押注RBI维持6.50%利率不变，USD/INR或继续94–96区间震荡、上沿偏强。

2

Jul 2026

美元/日元剧烈震荡引发干预猜测，市场严阵以待美国就业报告

警惕干预再现：美元/日元欧市闪崩逾百点至161附近，市场聚焦今夜非农定价；DXY走弱、欧元通胀回落，英镑偏强，黄金守稳4050。

2

Jul 2026

英镑和美元走弱、日元大涨，引发干预猜测升温并推动期权波动率上行

日元盘中突升拖累GBP/JPY与USD/JPY急挫，市场揣测日本财务省或临近干预并借低流动性放大效果；期权隐含波动率攀升，建议以虚值看跌/日元看涨对冲风险。

2

Jul 2026

欧元/英镑跌破0.8600关口，英镑空头回补推动，市场焦点转向英国财政风险

EUR/GBP跌破0.8600触发英镑空头去杠杆，负carry与技术破位放大抛压，或缓探0.8545。焦点转向英国政治与预算案，期权布局波动再起。

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