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Live Updates

2

Jul 2026

《每年进行的《美墨加协定》（USMCA）审查延续至2036年，令墨西哥投资持续观望，推升比索风险溢价》

USMCA改为年度审查至2036年，虽短期贸易稳定，却加剧制度不确定性；墨西哥风险溢价与比索波动上行，FDI观望，建议布局USD/MXN多头。

2

Jul 2026

新西兰联储在大选前维持货币政策委员会人数为六人，7月利率决议因僵局迫近

RBNZ称大选前MPC不扩员，3-3僵局加剧7月8日决议不确定性；通胀与增长韧性抬升“鹰派意外”。策略：买入NZD看涨期权、短端OIS付固定。

2

Jul 2026

美元/加元走低，疲弱的美国非农就业数据抑制美联储加息预期；油价走弱限制加元涨幅

非农大幅不及预期并下修促Fed加息预期降温，美元/加元回落至1.4180；隐波跳升利多波动策略，但油价走弱压制加元，区间1.4150—1.4350博弈。

2

Jul 2026

加拿大制造业PMI维持在53上方，支撑加拿大央行谨慎立场及加元偏强倾向

加拿大6月S&P Global制造业PMI升至53.0，扩张延续。韧性信号或压制降息预期，支撑加元与能源链，工业材料板块及TSX期权策略受益。

2

Jul 2026

欧洲央行考虑提高最低准备金率，考验欧元区流动性并推动Euribor-OIS利差走阔

路透曝ECB拟秋季上调最低准备金率，促准备金转入非付息账户以压降亏损、收紧流动性；Euribor/OIS利差已走阔，外围银行融资压力或上升，短端利率趋向MRO。

2

Jul 2026

俄罗斯国际储备降至7152亿美元，引发对卢布支撑能力及财政压力的质疑

俄央行国际储备降至7,152亿美元，区间净减286亿美元，释放干预与融资压力信号；或拖累卢布走弱，扰动油市并抬升波动率，期权对冲需求上升。

2

Jul 2026

新加坡制造业PMI升至51.3，扩张势头延续，支撑新元走强及海峡时报指数上行潜力

新加坡制造业PMI升至51.3创阶段新高，扩张动能增强；数据支撑新元渐进升值预期，建议布局STI虚值看涨期权，并以保护性看跌对冲外部尾部风险。

2

Jul 2026

受疲软美国非农就业数据影响，美元抛售与美联储预期重定价推动美元/瑞郎跌至6月低点

非农爆冷触发美元抛售，美元/瑞郎跌至0.8029创阶段新低。FedWatch降9月行动概率，叠加瑞士低通胀与SNB零利率，期权策略押注下探0.7900。

2

Jul 2026

戴利称在美联储保持谨慎之际美国经济展现韧性，并指出人工智能提振与油价压力缓解

戴利称美国经济韧性未减，投资强劲、就业趋稳；政策略限制助通胀回落，关税与油价扰动可控。AI或推升生产率抑通胀，美联储观望致波动上行。

2

Jul 2026

美国初请失业金人数降至21.5万人，强化市场对美联储进一步收紧政策的押注，推升短期美国国债收益率

美国初请失业金降至21.5万显劳动力市场韧性超预期，强化美联储偏紧立场并推升加息定价；建议提升波动率对冲、做多短端收益率，谨慎科技地产、侧重金融。

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