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2

Jul 2026

印尼金融市场持稳：油价回落提振印尼盾，外资债券流入增加

油价回落促印尼外汇与本币债趋稳但反弹克制；USD/IDR回落后仍偏弱。外资回流国债、持仓升至12.7%，10年期收益率难破7%。政策沟通与美紧缩预期降温成关键，股市受MSCI短撑但11月审议或放大波动。

2

Jul 2026

印尼盾企稳，油价回落支撑印尼盾债券，美元/印尼盾谨慎徘徊于18,000下方

油价回调后印尼在岸债汇企稳但反弹受限；USD/IDR跌破18000后获支撑仍偏弱。外资增配印尼盾债至12.7%，股流淡；10年期利率需破7%，关注美通胀与MSCI评审波动。

2

Jul 2026

美元/日元跌破161关口，疲弱美国非农就业数据强化美联储鸽派预期，干预风险上升

非农显著不及预期引发美元抛压，美元/日元跌至161附近；市场重定价美联储转鸽，9月降息概率飙升。日元获干预与加息预期支撑，期权布局看跌与波动交易成焦点。

2

Jul 2026

金价飙升突破4,100美元，疲弱美国非农就业数据拖累美元并削弱美联储加息预期

非农大幅不及预期引爆宽松定价：美元指数跌至两周低位，金价升破4,100至4,120。FedWatch下调9月加息概率，黄金ETF资金净流入回升。

2

Jul 2026

美国能源信息署报告美国天然气库存增幅超预期，夏季需求风险隐现拖累期货价格

EIA周报显示截至6月26日当周美国天然气库存增87Bcf超预期，库存较五年均值高逾350Bcf，供给偏空致近月承压；关注高温与LNG出口支撑，建议期权跨式及卖近买冬日历价差。

2

Jul 2026

欧元走强，疲弱美国非农就业数据削弱美联储加息预期，令美元承压

非农大幅不及预期引发联储利率定价下修，美元指数回落，EUR/USD 升至九日高位；但通胀黏性与欧央行转鸽或限制欧元续涨，期权策略可布局回落。

2

Jul 2026

英国央行曼恩称或采取“激进”行动，服务业通胀黏性提高令降息押注更趋复杂

曼释放“积极行动”信号：若通胀预期失锚或再偏离2%目标，英银或更鹰派维持高利率更久，乃至加息；下半年数据成关键，支撑英镑与利率策略重定价。

2

Jul 2026

泰国步入2026年第二季度基础更趋稳固，出口提振增长前景，泰国央行维持政策利率于1.00%不变

出口与科技投资托底泰国经济，内需仍弱。央行维持政策利率1.00%并上修2026年GDP至2.3%。供给驱动通胀抬升但核心受控，泰铢区间震荡，建议卖波动率。

2

Jul 2026

辛特拉会议释放信号：各国央行正从前瞻性指引转向以数据为导向的框架指引

辛特拉信号显示央行沟通或由前瞻指引转向AI大数据驱动的“框架指引”，以9—12个月实时数据为锚并重估通胀口径；政策再校准或抬升波动，促衍生品定价与策略重构。

2

Jul 2026

美国工厂订单降幅小于预期，非农就业报告发布前美联储维持观望立场

美国5月工厂订单环比降1.3%优于预期，释放“降温非坍塌”信号；市场聚焦6月非农触发再定价，联储或观望，VIX或抬升，波动率策略受益。

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