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3

Jul 2026

美元指数在美国非农就业数据疲弱后下滑，日元反弹引发干预猜测

美国非农显著低于预期致加息预期下修，DXY跌至两周低位后徘徊；日元反弹与干预猜测加剧波动。策略：逢高做空、卖102看涨并配USDJPY看跌。

3

Jul 2026

美国石油钻机数增至445座，原油价格上涨提振钻探意愿

贝克休斯：美国石油钻机升至445座，连续两周回升。WTI稳站85美元及库存下降提振信心，供给渐进或压波动；期权策略关注卖虚值看跌、牛市价差。

3

Jul 2026

英镑走强：美国非农就业数据疲软削减美联储加息押注，提振英镑/美元期权需求

美国非农显著不及预期，市场下修美联储加息概率，美元承压推升英镑/美元创十日高位；建议以看涨期权或牛市价差布局上行，警惕CPI反转风险。

3

Jul 2026

华尔街转向工业股板块：疲弱非农就业数据提振道指、施压纳指

非农仅增5.7万触发美股分化：道指创高、纳指承压，反映科技向工业轮动。利率预期变动有限，关注ISM与FOMC纪要，谨慎对冲回撤风险。

3

Jul 2026

纽约梅隆银行警告：在政策不确定性与人工智能供应链风险逼近之际，日元与韩元空头交易过度拥挤

纽约梅隆称日元韩元多头基本投降、持仓极端拥挤；油价回落与美元套息降温削弱贬值逻辑。若美国借AI供应链政策信号介入，日元韩元台币或现急升。

3

Jul 2026

由于美国非农就业数据疲软打压美元并改变市场对美联储利率预期，纽元/美元走高

非农骤降叠加前值大幅下修，美元承压推动NZD/USD走强；市场押注美联储转鸽、RBNZ维持偏紧，利差与套息逻辑强化，期权布局看涨并配套对冲。

2

Jul 2026

英镑走强，疲弱的美国非农就业数据削弱美联储加息押注，美元与美债收益率回落

美国非农大幅逊预期触发降息定价回升，美债收益率与美元指数走弱，推升英镑兑美元刷新高位；英镑受通胀支撑但政治扰动，期权策略偏向有限风险布局。

2

Jul 2026

由于美国就业数据疲软拖累美元跌至两周低点，白银触及周内波动区间上沿

非农爆冷拖累美元至两周低位，白银冲击周内上沿至61美元。9月加息预期下修利多短线，但均线压制与通胀约束仍在，谨防回落55.5。

2

Jul 2026

美国4周期国库券收益率回落至3.605%，市场计入美联储降息预期提前

美国4周期国库券中标利率降至3.605%，短端融资成本趋稳；市场边际下调收益率，强化7月FOMC降息预期，利多利率敏感股与波动率下行，关注非农风险。

2

Jul 2026

德国商业银行认为，美国就业数据走软将促使美联储维持利率不变直至2026年

就业与通胀同步降温成政策转向信号：德商行称6月非农不及预期且前值下修、油价回落与核心CPI趋稳，削弱7月加息理由，预计联邦基金利率4.75%-5.00%维持至2026年。

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