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Live Updates

30

Jul 2026

美国6月个人消费支出环比增长0.3%，符合预期，支撑经济“软着陆”叙事

美国6月PCE环比增0.3%符合预期，消费韧性支撑软着陆，短端加息意外风险降、波动率或收缩；关注通胀与就业，策略偏卖方期权及美债区间交易。

30

Jul 2026

美国四周初请失业金人数均值降至20.275万，强化偏鹰派利率前景并支撑美元走强

美国初请失业金四周均值降至20.275万，劳动力市场仍紧俏。利率“更高更久”预期升温：美债收益率或上行、美元受撑；期权宜做空久期、买DXY看涨并配置股指价差与防御性看跌。

30

Jul 2026

美联储维持利率不变，反对票增多；沃什对9月政策走向态度暧昧，美元走软

美联储维持3.50%–3.75%利率区间，三名FOMC委员主张即刻加息。沃什强调数据依赖削弱9月加息预期，美元与两年期美债收益率走弱，DXY 100.300支撑成关键。

30

Jul 2026

英国央行将利率维持在3.75%不变，贝利称基准情景发生概率下降并警示海湾地区不确定性

英央行7月维持政策利率3.75%，MPC以6:3按兵不动；贝利称收益率曲线匹配评估、CPI回落鼓舞，并下调中央情景概率，警示海湾不确定性。

30

Jul 2026

英镑走弱：英国央行维持利率不变，但投票分歧偏向鸽派

英国央行维持利率3.75%但投票更偏鸽派，英镑冲高回落至1.3380。关注GBP/USD看跌期权、做空英镑及做多短端SONIA期货交易机会。

30

Jul 2026

墨西哥第二季度GDP超预期，提振比索前景并扭转降息预期

墨西哥二季度GDP同比增2.2%超预期0.7个百分点，经济韧性或推升比索并压降降息预期；关注USD/MXN看跌、TIIE互换pay fixed及IPC看涨，并以Mbonos看跌对冲。

30

Jul 2026

英国央行将利率维持在3.75%，6∶3投票分歧推升英镑波动性预期

英央行维持3.75%利率不变但投票6∶3分裂释放鹰派信号，英镑波动或上行；建议布局GBP看涨价差、做空2026年12月SONIA，并用英债期货长跨式捕捉收益率跳升。

30

Jul 2026

欧洲股市小幅走高，财报与回购抵消美联储主导的收益率飙升及地缘政治紧张局势

欧股震荡走高，Fed按兵不动仍推升长端收益率并抬升波动率；AI资本开支分化、财报与回购托底风险偏好。关注曲线陡峭化与外汇、油价期权对冲。

30

Jul 2026

美联储维持政策立场不变，美元走弱，市场焦点转向英国央行及英镑前景

美联储按兵不动后曲线再陡峭、美元走软，市场质疑其抗通胀决心；焦点转向英国央行：或维持利率但释放鹰派指引，警惕二阶效应与通胀反弹推升英镑。

30

Jul 2026

比利时7月CPI飙升推动市场押注欧元区利率将在更长时间内维持高位

比利时7月CPI环比升至0.63%显著加速，强化欧元区通胀粘性与ECB高利率预期；建议做空短久期债、买入欧元看涨期权，并布局HICP通胀支付互换。

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