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31

Jul 2026

受伊朗遇袭影响美元反弹，且美联储加息预期持续，金价跌破4,100美元

金价自4,120美元回落并失守4,100关口，美元在地缘避险与加息预期支撑下走强压制。聚焦4,074关键支撑，建议短期熊市看涨价差或买入卖权应对波动。

31

Jul 2026

纽元/美元跌近0.5870，中国PMI走弱叠加美联储鹰派立场提振美元

中国PMI跌破荣枯线叠加美联储鹰派推升美元指数，NZD/USD回落至0.5870；尽管新西兰信心回升，外需与利差压力主导，期权布局偏空更具性价比。

31

Jul 2026

日本财务省三村释放干预日元走弱信号，美元/日元交投于160附近

日方外汇最高官员三村淳称与美方等主管部门密切协作，关注日元贬值忧虑；拒评是否干预，但强调当局随时准备必要时采取适当市场稳定措施。

31

Jul 2026

日本6月零售销售下滑削弱鸽派押注，令日元承压并提振日本国债（JGB）

日本6月零售经季调环比骤降4.1%逆转前值，内需动能显著转弱。或促日银按兵不动，日元承压；关注数据是否延续，布局USD/JPY看涨与做多JGB期货。

31

Jul 2026

日本6月工业产出反弹，强化市场对日本央行收紧政策的押注及日元走强预期

日本6月工业生产同比大增4.25%扭转收缩，制造业动能骤升或为日央行续加息开绿灯；警惕日元走强、日经波动与JGB收益率上行，期权对冲。

31

Jul 2026

日本零售销售不及预期，削弱市场对日本央行收紧政策押注，令日元承压

日本6月零售同比仅增0.5%远逊预期，消费动能骤降：料BOJ加息预期降温、宽松延续，日元承压；关注USD/JPY看涨、JGB期货与日经225牛市价差机会。

31

Jul 2026

东京CPI意外上行提振日元，交易员押注日本央行加息概率上升

东京7月CPI与核心通胀双超预期、粘性抬升，触发日元强势反攻，USD/JPY跌破160。OIS加息押注升温，期权偏多日元；建议对冲下行并关注黄金承压。

31

Jul 2026

东京核心核心通胀率7月升至2%，强化市场对日本央行加息的押注

东京核心-核心CPI7月同比升至2%并高于前值1.9%，潜在通胀动能回升，市场加大对日本央行加息定价：利多日元、推升JGB收益率、压制出口股估值。

31

Jul 2026

东京7月CPI升至2%，强化第三季度初通胀压力

东京7月CPI同比升至2%超预期，较前值1.7%显著加速，释放三季度初通胀抬头信号；作为全国通胀先行指标，潜在价格压力仍存。

31

Jul 2026

日本失业率维持在2.5%，令日本央行继续朝政策正常化方向推进

日本6月失业率持平2.5%印证劳动力市场紧俏，为央行政策正常化释放信号；利率看多收益率、做空JGB/付固定互换，外汇做多日元，股指期权对冲回撤风险。

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