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12

Aug 2026

中国原油进口波动缓冲中东冲击，反弹回升推升全球油价风险

国民银行称，中国3-6月原油进口锐减41%抑制油价，7月却反弹22%施压布伦特；需求与中东风险并列核心变量，建议期权做多波动。

12

Aug 2026

欧元/美元区间震荡，美国通胀降温及中东局势紧张令欧元承压

通胀差与中东地缘风险对冲，EUR/USD徘徊1.1550区间；美CPI回落、德HICP上行且9月ECB趋紧，隐波或收敛，铁鹰式卖波动策略受关注。

12

Aug 2026

美国7月未季调CPI低于预期，强化市场对美联储降息的押注

美国7月CPI未季调升至333.92，略低于预期333.99，通胀边际缓和。或推动市场上调降息定价：美债收益率下行，股指期权与美元走弱交易机会凸显。

12

Aug 2026

随着7月CPI数据公布临近，美元保持平稳；在伊朗谈判不确定性背景下，美联储加息概率回落

美国7月CPI公布前美元指数99.85区间徘徊；9月加息25bp概率降至50%、曲线仅隐含未来12个月再收紧逾40bp。PPI及伊美停火议题或引发波动。

12

Aug 2026

在美日联合干预抑制上行的背景下，美元/日元在159.25附近盘整，汇价维持区间震荡格局

USD/JPY稳守159.25，高位超买转入盘整；UOB料158.95–159.60，1–3周偏上行。美日罕见联合干预抬升政策可信度，压制上破160.20；宜区间交易并布局卖权利金。

12

Aug 2026

美国CPI料将降温，市场对美联储加息押注降温，为美元更大幅度震荡奠定基础

美国7月CPI环比料升0.1%，总规与核心同比或分别降至3.4%与2.5%；油价回落、中东扰动缓解铺垫美元短线，取决于数据对9月政策定价。

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