Live Updates

4

Aug 2026

新西兰元兑美元维持在0.5870附近，美国数据走强令美元坚挺，纽就业报告发布前市场观望

NZD/USD围绕0.5870窄幅震荡，受美国ISM超预期推升收益率与美元企稳压制。新西兰就业、LCI及中国服务业PMI将引爆波动，建议短跨式并配看跌期权对冲。

4

Aug 2026

受美伊会谈希望升温、风险溢价回落影响，油价下挫；美国工厂景气指标好于预期，美元走强

油价因美伊谈判预期崩跌、美元受ISM走强提振，G10普遍承压；策略聚焦WTI熊市价差、黄金长线看涨及USD/JPY看跌，并关注亚太就业数据冲击。

4

Aug 2026

霍姆斯将黄金“恐惧与钟爱”交易视为：债务风险、日元套利交易平仓及人工智能金属需求上升的映射

黄金买盘六成源自亚洲中东“家族财富”配置，叠加高债务与MMT推升金价；日元套息回补或触发跨资产抛售。模型称60日金价上行概率85%，AI基建拉动铜银需求。

4

Aug 2026

中国 mBridge 央行数字货币（CBDC）网络携手 CIPS 以更低成本跨境结算挑战 SWIFT

中国拟推区块链跨境批发CBDC平台mBridge，由中港泰阿央行支持、香港机构运营；已结算4,700亿元，或向商业银行开放，费用较SWIFT降约50%，补充CIPS并削弱美元主导。

4

Aug 2026

阿根廷7月税收收入升至22万亿比索，较6月水平加速增长

阿根廷7月税收增至22万亿比索，环比+9.9%并跑赢通胀，财政盈余战略强化，主权信用风险下行；关注做多2030/2035全球债、做空CDS及USD/ARS期货，叠加买入GGAL、YPF看涨期权。

4

Aug 2026

墨西哥比索走强，二季度GDP反弹，交易员关注墨西哥央行维持利率不变，美国数据风险犹存

墨西哥比索受风险偏好与GDP反弹支撑走强，USD/MXN回落至17.32。Banxico大概率维持6.50%利率，利差延续。建议衍生品做空并配保护性期权防美就业波动。

4

Aug 2026

美元趋势线跌破与央行购金令市场焦点重回黄金与白银，目标价4,000美元

美元指数疑破15年趋势线、或现美日协同干预，叠加资金自半导体向贵金属轮动预期与央行季增持289吨，黄金4,000美元支撑凸显，8月或成衍生品看涨窗口。

4

Aug 2026

美国股市8月开盘走高，科技股反弹推动纳指与标普500指数在强劲财报支撑下上扬

8月美股强势反弹，科技股领涨：纳指涨逾2%、标普升1.6%，巨头市值创新高。油价回落与估值修复叠加，盈利同比大增47.4%；非农及油价冲击成关键风险。

4

Aug 2026

受报道称美日干预影响美元反弹，黄金小幅走低，市场关注转向霍尔木兹紧张局势

美元在美日疑似外汇干预后反弹，叠加强劲ISM制造业PMI推升利率预期，金价失守200日均线至4037美元；中东风险仅提供脉冲避险，短线偏空。

4

Aug 2026

在伊朗紧张局势及美国制造业数据强劲提振需求之际，美元指数反弹迈向100关口

美元指数回升逼近100，ISM制造业PMI创高叠加美伊不确定性推升避险；市场聚焦9月加息定价与波动率，建议运用区间期权及能源、黄金对冲。

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