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Live Updates

12

Aug 2026

日元回落，美国CPI符合预期，市场下调美联储加息押注；美元/日元在159.20附近企稳

美国7月CPI符合预期，美元/日元自158.58反弹至159.20；FedWatch显示9月加息概率降至38%。警惕日本再度干预，建议短期看跌对冲、区间期权收权利金，并用利率期货防范收益率下行。

12

Aug 2026

美国7月CPI符合预期，能源项拖累令9月美联储加息概率维持在50%以下

美国7月CPI温和、能源拖累致通胀降温，关税传导有限；核心及超级核心回升但可控，9月加息定价低于50%。美元承压，衍生品可布局看跌并严控PPI风险。

12

Aug 2026

特朗普称美国“完全控制”霍尔木兹海峡，交易员关注原油波动性及布伦特—WTI价差

特朗普宣称“完全控制”霍尔木兹海峡，地缘溢价或推升油价波动率；建议布局布油近月期权、WTI跨式及布伦特—WTI价差交易，把握供给扰动机会。

12

Aug 2026

欧元/英镑徘徊于0.8540附近，交易员静待英国GDP数据及英格兰银行政策分歧

英国GDP初值明日揭晓，EUR/GBP徘徊0.8540关键位；德CPI强化通胀黏性，BoE鹰派分歧支撑英镑。期权跨式捕捉波动，偏向下行至0.8532。

12

Aug 2026

EIA报告美国原油库存增加1,740万桶，逆市场预期出现下降

EIA数据显示美原油库存单周激增1,742万桶，远超预期减140万桶，供需突现背离引爆利空；油价或下探，建议偏空对冲与期权防御布局。

12

Aug 2026

黄金面临回调风险：超买信号与多头交易拥挤指向价格回落

黄金连涨后动能超买，市场聚焦潜在反转与下行轮动；季节性回撤与COMEX净多头拥挤抬升调整概率。建议收紧止损、布局看跌期权/价差并关注美元走强风险。

12

Aug 2026

英镑领涨G10货币，英国GDP、贸易与产出数据即将公布，或左右英镑兑美元走势

英镑兑美元在情绪回暖中领跑G10，市场押注英国Q2 GDP、贸易与工业产出检验上行动能；技术面偏多，关注1.35-1.36阻力、1.3400支撑与期权策略。

12

Aug 2026

中国原油进口波动缓冲中东冲击，反弹回升推升全球油价风险

国民银行称，中国3-6月原油进口锐减41%抑制油价，7月却反弹22%施压布伦特；需求与中东风险并列核心变量，建议期权做多波动。

12

Aug 2026

欧元/美元区间震荡，美国通胀降温及中东局势紧张令欧元承压

通胀差与中东地缘风险对冲，EUR/USD徘徊1.1550区间；美CPI回落、德HICP上行且9月ECB趋紧，隐波或收敛，铁鹰式卖波动策略受关注。

12

Aug 2026

美国7月未季调CPI低于预期，强化市场对美联储降息的押注

美国7月CPI未季调升至333.92，略低于预期333.99，通胀边际缓和。或推动市场上调降息定价：美债收益率下行，股指期权与美元走弱交易机会凸显。

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