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Live Updates

12

Aug 2026

随着7月CPI数据公布临近，美元保持平稳；在伊朗谈判不确定性背景下，美联储加息概率回落

美国7月CPI公布前美元指数99.85区间徘徊；9月加息25bp概率降至50%、曲线仅隐含未来12个月再收紧逾40bp。PPI及伊美停火议题或引发波动。

12

Aug 2026

在美日联合干预抑制上行的背景下，美元/日元在159.25附近盘整，汇价维持区间震荡格局

USD/JPY稳守159.25，高位超买转入盘整；UOB料158.95–159.60，1–3周偏上行。美日罕见联合干预抬升政策可信度，压制上破160.20；宜区间交易并布局卖权利金。

12

Aug 2026

美国CPI料将降温，市场对美联储加息押注降温，为美元更大幅度震荡奠定基础

美国7月CPI环比料升0.1%，总规与核心同比或分别降至3.4%与2.5%；油价回落、中东扰动缓解铺垫美元短线，取决于数据对9月政策定价。

12

Aug 2026

美国CPI符合预期，美元走软、收益率回落，金价上扬突破4,400美元

金价突破4,400美元后续涨至4,429，受CPI回落、美元与美债收益率下行提振；衍生品建议短期限看涨期权，回调布局多头，关注地缘风险与4,500止盈。

12

Aug 2026

欧元/美元受能源成本拖累，交易员静待美国CPI指引短期走势

尽管欧元区数据强劲，EUR/USD仍承压：TTF天然气高于60欧元/MWh与地缘风险抬升成本。焦点转向美国CPI，偏软或冲击1.1580；夏季流动性稀薄，宜短期限跨式期权。

12

Aug 2026

华尔街股指期货在美国CPI公布前企稳，9月加息概率徘徊在50%附近

CPI公布前夕，美股指期货分化、9月加息概率逼近50%。通胀若偏离3.4%预期或触发剧震；建议指数跨式、利率价差及原油领口对冲地缘风险。

12

Aug 2026

美国CPI料将回落，油价波动与美联储加息概率影响欧元/美元及期权定价

今夜美国7月CPI或温和降温，核心通胀与油价扰动将重塑加息定价；EUR/USD或现80点级波动，期权跨式布局关注1.1570阻力与1.1470支撑。

12

Aug 2026

挪威央行料将鹰派按兵不动，通胀粘性令9月加息预期犹存

挪威央行明日料维持4.25%政策利率不变但偏鹰，通胀粘性支撑9月或加至4.5%。关注9月FRA、EUR/NOK看跌及挪德利差交易机遇。

12

Aug 2026

罗马尼亚通胀率受基数效应推动回落，CEE市场计入捷克与波兰进一步收紧政策预期

罗马尼亚CPI回落至8.2%但核心粘性，央行料2027前不降息；建议RON短端互换付固定。中欧加息定价偏鹰，做多CZK/PLN接收固定并远期多两币、空HUF。

12

Aug 2026

随着油价上涨，卢比走弱；市场静待印度及美国7月通胀数据

油价因霍尔木兹海峡航运受扰走强，推升印度卢比承压、USD/INR逼近95.52关键均线；市场紧盯印美7月CPI与波动率溢价，衍生品策略偏区间配置。

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