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Jul 2026

在美国经济数据疲软及沃什言论打压美元、非农就业报告发布前，欧元/美元收窄跌幅

欧元/美元受美数据走弱及沃什偏鸽表态提振反弹，市场仍高估9月加息概率；非农前建议做多波动率，布局近端跨式与远期虚值看涨期权。

1

Jul 2026

哥伦比亚央行意外加息75个基点至12%，推升终端利率预期并拉平收益率曲线

哥伦比亚央行意外加息75bp至12%，重启紧缩且未给前瞻指引，通胀上行风险突出。市场或上修前端利率、曲线趋平；高利差支撑比索，波动率策略受益。

1

Jul 2026

印度GDP增速放缓，星展即时预测显示进一步降温，提升对冲与波动率关注度

印度GDP增速Q1降至7.8%，DBS Nowcast指Q2或放缓至6.9%、全年仅6.5%。增长动能减弱或触发降息预期，股指对冲、做多波动及关注卢比贬压。

1

Jul 2026

加拿大GDP超预期，能源行业反弹提振第二季度增长前景，关税及楼市风险犹存

加拿大4月GDP环比超预期至0.5%，二季度年化跟踪2.3%：能源产出跳升领涨并支撑加元；但关税不确定、楼市低迷与政策路径摇摆，宜多能源、买入看跌期权对冲。

1

Jul 2026

汇丰预计英国通胀回落背景下英格兰银行将维持利率不变；偏好英镑投资级信用债

通胀回落仍高于目标、工资黏性未消；英央行维持3.75%并或长期暂停。汇丰上调Q4峰值至3.25%，看好卖波动率与超配英镑投资级信用。

1

Jul 2026

EIA数据显示美国原油库存降幅不及预期，夏季需求来临前油价多头保持谨慎

EIA周度原油去库377.5万桶不及预期510万桶，收紧弱化或压制短线；但出行旺季与供给平台支撑底部，建议区间偏多：卖虚值看跌或构建WTI牛市价差，目标85–87美元。

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