Live Updates

2

Jul 2026

美元兑日元维持在162.50附近，美国经济数据走软且日本干预风险逼近

美元/日元逼近162.50引爆市场：美ISM扩张但ADP走弱，非农前降息预期升温；日元承压却干预风险陡增，期权隐波飙升，谨慎布防看跌。

2

Jul 2026

英镑小幅走高：美国经济数据走软抵消美联储鹰派立场及英国政治不确定性影响

英镑逆美元走强收涨0.14%，美就业数据低于预期短线施压美元；但通胀黏性与美联储偏鹰限制上行。政局不确定推升波动率，期权跨式或占优。

2

Jul 2026

随着霍尔木兹海峡石油运输逐步恢复、OPEC+增产预期升温，WTI油价下挫并逼近冲突前水平

霍尔木兹通行恢复叠加OPEC+或再增产，WTI回吐地缘溢价至68美元附近；EIA库存续降但低于预期。机构建议买入8月65美元看跌期权，设70美元止损。

1

Jul 2026

沃什放弃前瞻性指引，强调2%通胀目标与人工智能评估，市场转向数据驱动

沃什海外首秀：美联储淡化前瞻指引、强化价格稳定并评估政策框架，拒谈利率路径；通胀仍高于2%目标。交易转向数据驱动，衍生品捕捉波动成主线。

1

Jul 2026

道指触及52,500点，Alphabet重塑价格加权指数结构，疲软数据令非农就业成为市场焦点

道指创新高至52,500点，Alphabet纳入强化价格加权下AI/云计算敞口，推升指数但上涨广度偏弱；经济数据走软，聚焦提前公布NFP，建议以DIA看跌期权/熊市价差低成本对冲回撤风险。

1

Jul 2026

在劳动力短缺推动下，俄罗斯失业率降至2.1%，俄央行利率维持高位

俄罗斯5月失业率降至2.1%创低，反映劳动力短缺加剧并推升通胀；俄央行或维持16%+紧缩。策略：短端利率互换、卢布跨式期权，配置能源材料。

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