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1

Jul 2026

欧元区通胀因能源价格下行而降温，德国商业银行预计欧洲央行9月将加息

欧元区6月通胀回落至2.8%却难言拐点：核心仍粘性、能源传导或推升间接压力。市场押注ECB9月再加息，欧元偏强、股市与波动率风险上行。

1

Jul 2026

金价反弹重回4000美元上方，疲软美国数据打压美元，美联储加息预期仍存

金价重返4,000美元受美元走软提振，但加息预期与实物需求转弱压制反弹；非农将定方向。回升宜布局看跌期权与卖出看涨价差。

1

Jul 2026

美国ISM制造业PMI不及预期，价格压力缓解；美元稳守101上方

ISM显示美国6月制造业PMI降至53.3、低于预期，支付价格指数大幅回落凸显通胀降温；美元指数仍守101上方偏强，市场博弈美联储政策转向。

1

Jul 2026

美国ISM制造业价格支付指数不及预期，降低美联储加息押注并提振股市

ISM制造业价格支付指数6月报73低于预期79，通胀降温超预期；或压低短端利率、提振成长股并下行VIX，同时削弱美元，利多SOFR与欧元。

1

Jul 2026

美国建筑支出不及预期，助长市场押注美联储降息并加剧市场波动性

美国5月建筑支出环比仅增0.1%不及预期，经济降温叙事强化，限制性货币政策效应显现；降息预期升温，利空材料工业，美元承压，波动率对冲价值凸显。

1

Jul 2026

美国制造业PMI不及预期引发鸽派美联储押注明显升温，波动率对冲需求上升，欧元/美元多头增持

ISM制造业PMI意外降至53.3低于预期，扩张但动能放缓；加息预期回落、鸽派定价升温。建议增配短端利率期货，买入VIX看涨，做空工业并偏多欧元。

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