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8

Jul 2026

布伦特原油逼近76美元：美国袭击伊朗并撤销石油许可证，霍尔木兹海峡航运担忧升温

霍尔木兹遇袭推升航运风险，美国加码军事打击与金融制裁撤销伊油许可，布油仅计入有限事件溢价。机构判断波动率低估，建议布局远期虚值看涨期权捕捉重定价。

8

Jul 2026

美国财政部在霍尔木兹海峡遇袭后撤销伊朗原油豁免，推动布伦特和WTI原油上涨5%

美财政部撤销伊朗原油通用许可证并设7月17日回转期限，叠加霍尔木兹袭击引发风险溢价回归；布伦特、WTI跳涨5%，市场押注供应收紧与波动率上行。

8

Jul 2026

欧元/美元走低，霍尔木兹局势紧张推升美元，市场聚焦欧洲央行政策押注与美联储会议纪要

霍尔木兹风险事件推升油价与避险美元，欧元/美元冲高回落收创逾一周低位；市场聚焦FOMC纪要再定价，期权端建议配置下行保护。

8

Jul 2026

英镑/日元自多年高点回落，日元走强及干预担忧抑制多头动能

GBP/JPY冲高217.22后回落至216.51，疑似假突破，或回测216.00。日本干预预期推升隐波至13.5%，建议以期权价差/买入看跌控险博弈。

8

Jul 2026

在新西兰联储利率决议前，纽元兑美元小幅下行；美联储谨慎立场支撑美元

RBNZ 决议前 NZD/USD 回撤至 0.5680，市场计价 OCR 或上调 25bp 且分歧加剧，隐波升至 14.5%。美元韧性压制反弹，期权优选买入看跌或跨式捕捉事件波动。

8

Jul 2026

英镑涨势受阻，霍尔木兹袭击事件推升美元需求，市场焦点转向美联储会议纪要

霍尔木兹遇袭触发risk-off，英镑兑美元九连涨终止并回落至1.3356。美元避险回流、VIX飙升，叠加FOMC纪要与初请风险，或下探1.3300/1.3250。

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