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8

Jul 2026

美元/加元徘徊于1.4200附近，FOMC会议纪要与伊朗紧张局势提振美元，油价走强支撑加元

USD/CAD反弹至1.4200，市场聚焦沃什任内首份纪要。避险美元获撑、加息预期降温；霍尔木兹冲突推油价走强利多加元，政策分化或放大波动。

8

Jul 2026

日本5月国际收支贸易顺差收窄至69亿日元，预示日元再度承压

日本5月BOP贸易顺差骤缩至69亿日元、近乎持平，警示日元基本面转弱并利多美元/日元上行；能源进口升、外需降温，建议布局美元/日元看涨期权与日经波动率长跨式。

8

Jul 2026

日本银行贷款增速6月放缓至5.7%，强化日本央行谨慎展望

日本6月银行贷款同比增速降至5.7%低于预期，信贷扩张边际走弱。或促日本央行谨慎推进正常化，日元承压利多出口股；可布局美元兑日元看涨期权及日经多头。

8

Jul 2026

日本5月经常账户顺差不及预期，美元/日元多头瞄准168，日元承压

日本5月经常账户顺差3.968万亿日元不及预期，缺口1,533亿引发市场警觉。叠加高油价、日银鸽派与显著利差，日元承压，USD/JPY或上探168。

8

Jul 2026

金价走弱逼近4100美元，美国与伊朗在霍尔木兹海峡冲突推升油价及通胀忧虑；市场静待美联储会议纪要

霍尔木兹紧张升级与美军打击信号令金价回落至4,100美元；油价扰动或推升通胀压制无息资产，但疲弱非农下调加息预期，波动率或飙升。

8

Jul 2026

机构资金外流加剧韩国科技股跌势，台湾卖出仍相对温和

BNY iFlow示机构持续净流出韩股，KOSPI入熊市且AI/半导体拥挤交易引发科技股抛压；台股去杠杆温和。中国资金偏好韧性，丹麦印度强吸金——下一轮下行或未完。

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