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7

Jul 2026

在霍尔木兹紧张局势提振美元之际，美元/加元上探1.4210，但美联储偏鸽预期限制涨幅

霍尔木兹紧张推升避险买盘，美元/加元三连阳至1.4210；但美就业走弱强化“今夏不加息”定价，油价近70美元支撑加元，建议布局8-9月看跌期权。

7

Jul 2026

在霍尔木兹紧张局势提振美元之际，美元/加元升破1.4200；美联储宽松押注降温及油价走强限制涨幅

霍尔木兹海峡紧张抬升美元避险溢价，美元/加元升至1.4210；但美国就业走弱压制加息预期、油价回落支撑加元，建议期权宽跨式捕捉波动。

7

Jul 2026

帕内塔警告霍尔木兹海峡供应风险或将持续推升欧元区通胀，限制欧洲央行降息空间

帕内塔警示霍尔木兹海峡不确定性推升欧元区通胀上行风险，供给冲击频发致滞胀压力加剧；市场定价偏鸽，建议增配能源及利率、波动率期权策略。

7

Jul 2026

英镑走强，英国通胀企稳；英镑/美元瞄准1.3410，1.3445在望

英镑兑美元反弹收涨0.29%至1.3391，通胀稳固与美非农走弱提振，短线看向1.3410/1.3445；守住1.3350-1.3370，跌破1.3300终结多头。

7

Jul 2026

德国商业银行预测新西兰联储或于7月加息，新西兰元走势支撑取决于前瞻指引

德国商业银行押注RBNZ 7月或加息，70%概率支撑纽元；但市场已计入未来一年3.5次加息，空间受限。若经济走弱触发重新定价，纽元中期承压。

7

Jul 2026

日元小幅走高，美元走软推动美元/日元跌破162关口，干预担忧缓和

美元走软带动日元小幅反弹，美元/日元回落至162下方缓解干预忧虑；然美日利差与套息交易仍主导，FOMC纪要成关键催化，期权宜限风险。

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