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31

Aug 2026

美元在杰克逊霍尔会议后飙升并趋稳，就业数据临近；中东紧张局势升温推高油价

Warsh鹰派推升美元后横盘，焦点转向双非农；欧通胀升温押注ECB加息，日元逼160警惕干预。中东战事推油价，美方“便士认股权证”布局委国油，改写能源定价。

31

Aug 2026

金价回落至4,397美元，获利回吐升温；美元走强及美联储鹰派立场压制后市展望

金价自4,700美元见顶回落至4,397美元，美元走强与获利了结主导。A浪近尾声、B浪待反弹；先破4,510才望4,580–4,620，随后C浪或下探4,330–4,250，甚至4,100。

31

Aug 2026

沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话引发美债短端抛售，金价下跌，紧张局势推高油价

Warsh 鹰派引爆前端利率重定价：2年期飙升、9月加息概率升至61%，长端淡定；美股温和、金价暴跌、油价因中东冲突跳涨。衍生品聚焦短端与对冲。

31

Aug 2026

巴西7月名义预算赤字扩大至976亿雷亚尔，较预期少13.6亿雷亚尔

巴西7月名义赤字飙至976亿雷亚尔，较预估多136亿；财政“爆冷”恐压低雷亚尔、推升风险溢价。交易者关注USD/BRL多头、DI曲线陡峭化及股市防守策略。

31

Aug 2026

金价持稳于4,436美元附近，联储局偏鹰限制涨幅，债券收益率上升与油价飙涨

黄金周一守稳但跌破200日线至4,436美元；杰克逊霍尔推升美元与美债利率，9月加息概率升至61%。油价走强添波动，策略偏空/买Put，警惕反转。

31

Aug 2026

沃什在杰克逊霍尔鹰派转向推高9月加息概率，市场严阵以待美国数据潮

美联储杰克逊霍尔偏鹰讲话引爆重定价：9月加息概率升破50%，收益率曲线走平、美元转强。JOLTS、ISM与非农将定胜负；衍生品宜押美元看涨、曲线走平与国债跨式。

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