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Live Updates

30

Jun 2026

6月芝加哥PMI降至56.7，进一步印证美国经济增速降温，并削弱市场对美联储鹰派押注

芝加哥PMI意外回落至56.7不及预期，暗示经济动能降温；机构上调股指Put对冲、增配VIX与美债期货，转空美元并减铜增金，关注三季度政策转鸽。

30

Jun 2026

美元/日元突破2024年高点，美元走强之际市场关注日本央行支撑措施

美元/日元突破162并逼近165高位，干预预期升温。日本或借美数据与假期低流动性窗口出手，但美元强势、外储与IMF约束或压制日元中期反弹。

30

Jun 2026

美元走软，风险偏好回升；市场聚焦欧洲央行辛特拉会议信号及美国非农就业数据

风险偏好回升致美元回调，但后续取决于ECB辛特拉信号与美国非农。政策分化、美联储更偏鹰及日央行滞后，或重启美元温和上行。

30

Jun 2026

荷兰合作银行预计，随着通胀与就业数据趋缓令市场加息预期承压，英国央行将维持利率不变

拉博银行判断英国通胀回落、就业趋松，英央行年内或按兵不动；而市场仍计入6个月加息20bp。若预期回撤，英镑承压、EUR/GBP上行，交易可关注SONIA与期权。

30

Jun 2026

路透调查显示，因霍尔木兹海峡航运改善、需求趋弱，分析师下调2026年原油价格预测

霍尔木兹航运修复削弱地缘溢价，机构首降2026油价预期：布伦特84.5、WTI79.49。叠加需求放缓与库存意外累积，油市情绪转空，策略偏逢高减仓。

30

Jun 2026

欧元/日元小幅走高，德国通胀趋缓支撑市场对欧洲央行暂停加息的押注，干预风险仍存

欧元/日元升至185.10，德国通胀降温但零售回暖支撑欧元；欧日利差维持多头逻辑。警惕日本外汇干预致急跌，期权对冲并紧盯欧元区HICP指引。

30

Jun 2026

美国Case-Shiller房价指数涨幅超预期，“高利率维持更久”预期重塑住房市场交易策略

美国4月S&P/凯斯-席勒房价指数同比升1.1%，超预期0.2个百分点；住房通胀或再扰动政策路径。高利率维持更久，SOFR期货与期权策略受关注。

30

Jun 2026

美国房价指数4月下滑0.1%，强化市场对美联储政策转向鸽派的押注

美国4月房价指数环比-0.1%，较预期低0.3个百分点，房价动能转弱或重塑美联储降息定价；建议做多美债、做空住房链条，并以VIX期权对冲波动。

30

Jun 2026

美元/印度卢比维持窄幅震荡，印度债券资金流入抵消美联储鹰派立场影响

USD/INR区间胶着，外资流入与政策托底对冲美联储鹰派；债券指数纳入预期成关键催化。收益率回落、油金走弱支撑印债需求，卖波动率成主线。

30

Jun 2026

加拿大4月GDP超预期，强化加拿大央行鹰派立场并支撑加元走强

加拿大4月GDP环比0.5%超预期，强化二季度增长基数；通胀与就业延续韧性，BoC降息概率下修。油价支撑下，建议布局加元看涨，USD/CAD或回落至1.34。

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