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Live Updates

1

Jul 2026

汇丰维持对美国股市的“超配”评级，人工智能驱动的盈利增长正向大型科技股以外领域扩散

汇丰称AI驱动盈利扩散缓解美股高估忧虑，标普500 2026年盈利或增23%；维持美股超配、美元偏多，建议优质债券与黄金分散，并借回调与低VIX布局期权。

1

Jul 2026

欧元兑英镑跌至2025年7月以来低位，欧元区通胀不及预期削弱市场对欧洲央行加息的押注

欧元区HICP与核心通胀双双低于预期，市场下调ECB再加息定价，EUR/GBP跌至0.8598低位；聚焦辛特拉论坛，建议布局看跌期权并警惕官员鹰派言论引发反弹。

1

Jul 2026

金价跌至七个月低点，国债收益率攀升强化市场对美联储加息预期

金价四连跌逼近3,945美元，受美债收益率上行与美联储偏鹰预期压制；若失守3,970/3,940或指向3,886-3,860。期权偏空，央行购金托底。

1

Jul 2026

《USMCA审查不确定性及政策分化推动美元兑加元在7月偏向上行至1.45》

USMCA审查或推迟并重启谈判，美国拟收紧原产地规则推升贸易不确定性；叠加强美元与加央行偏鸽，美元/加元或守1.42并上探1.45。

1

Jul 2026

美元保持坚挺，因美国裁员公告减少且美联储哈马克仍保留进一步收紧政策的可能性

裁员数据环比大降、半年仍处高位，叠加美联储官员偏鹰表态，美元指数走稳；就业韧性支撑高利率预期，但若就业骤弱或触发美元回吐、美债反弹。

1

Jul 2026

欧元区通胀回落拖累欧元/日元走低，避险需求升温及干预传闻提振日元

欧元区通胀显著回落，强化市场对ECB鸽派定价并压制欧元；叠加日央行干预威慑与避险需求支撑日元，EUR/JPY或延续下行，关注182目标。

1

Jul 2026

WTI油价跌破69美元，美国与伊朗重启谈判提振供应预期，霍尔木兹海峡风险仍存

WTI跌破69美元、创四个月新低，市场押注美伊和解与伊朗增供；外交拉锯叠加霍尔木兹风险，油价或剧震，期权波动率机会凸显。

1

Jul 2026

波兰通胀触及波兰国家银行目标，市场计入降息预期，会议前欧元兑兹罗提（EUR/PLN）上行空间显现

波兰6月通胀回落至2.5%达NBP目标，食品拖累显著、核心稳。市场转向计入约10bp降息；若NBP更鸽，EUR/PLN或突破4.30阻力，期权布局受关注。

1

Jul 2026

欧元区6月核心HICP降至0.2%，强化市场对欧洲央行降息的押注

欧元区6月核心HICP环比升0.2%较前值回落，潜在通胀动能趋缓释放鸽派信号，强化欧洲央行续降息定价：利率衍生品走强，欧元承压，股指受益，隐波下行可期。

1

Jul 2026

欧元区核心通胀低于预期，强化市场对欧洲央行降息及欧元走弱的押注

欧元区6月核心HICP同比2.4%低于预期，潜在通胀降温超定价。ECB宽松空间扩大，年内降息概率上调；Euribor多头、欧元看跌、欧股看涨期权受益。

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