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Live Updates

2

Jul 2026

澳大利亚贸易收支转为30.2亿澳元逆差，澳元及股市承压加剧

澳大利亚5月贸易收支意外转入30.18亿澳元赤字，远逊预期顺差，净出口动能显著衰减；叠加铁矿石价格下挫，澳元承压，股市与波动率或再定价。

2

Jul 2026

日本6月货币基础同比下降13.7%，推动日元走强并推升日本国债收益率

日本6月货币基础同比骤降13.7%超预期，暗示日央行流动性回收加速、政策更偏鹰：日元或趋势性走强，日股承压，JGB收益率上行，波动率抬升。

2

Jul 2026

截至6月26日，外资流入日本股票由4790亿日元净流入转为小幅净流出

警惕信号：截至6月26日当周，外资日股资金流由净流入4,794亿日元骤转净流出10亿日元，汇率不确定性升温，建议增配波动率及保护性期权对冲。

2

Jul 2026

在美国就业数据公布前，沃什缓解加息担忧，金价自七个月低位反弹

金价反弹至4,045美元，受美联储立场趋鸽、美元与美债收益率回落提振；聚焦今晚美国就业数据与美伊谈判。央行持续购金、投机净多上升，回调或成布局窗口。

2

Jul 2026

英镑反弹在1.34附近受阻，英国央行官员讲话及美国就业数据临近

英镑自1.3150反弹至1.3300，但受50日/200日EMA收敛压制，动能趋弱。关注BoE讲话与提前公布NFP。1.3250若失守，或再探1.3150。

2

Jul 2026

美联储与日本央行利差扩大推动美元/日元升至数十年高位，非农数据公布前干预风险上升

USD/JPY升破162创高，尽管日央行加息，仍受美日275bp利差与美联储鹰派支撑。160隐性防线或引发干预波动。聚焦非农，期权对冲。

2

Jul 2026

英镑兑日元延续涨势，利差扩大推动英镑/日元走强，尽管面临干预威胁

英镑/日元上破215区间逼近年内高点216.60，受英日利差与套息交易支撑；但日本汇市干预威胁抬升波动率，期权对冲与跨式策略受关注。

2

Jul 2026

美元/离岸人民币跌破6.7900，UOB转向震荡整理判断，预计区间为6.7750–6.8080

USD/CNH跌破6.7900支撑后由升转整，短线或超卖企稳；UOB预计6.7860–6.7990震荡，1–3周锁定6.7750–6.8080，隐波4.5%利于卖权利金，关注6.8430 EMA破位风险。

2

Jul 2026

Banxico调查显示：2026年底通胀预测下调，增长预期保持稳定，墨西哥比索料走软

调查显示Banxico通胀预期回落、增长展望持平，USD/MXN料温和走弱至17.95；政策利率或维持6.50%，利差优势被贬值预期削弱，期权策略或受益。

2

Jul 2026

美元受益率走高企稳，ADP数据低于预期令市场在非农就业报告前趋于谨慎，欧元走软

美国数据分化推升非农前波动风险：DXY守101.40、长端美债收益率高位；欧区通胀回落强化美欧政策分化。策略：期权押利率波动、做空欧元、警惕日元干预，原油偏空金价谨慎。

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