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8

Jul 2026

油价维持地缘政治安全溢价，美伊紧张局势推升收益率；华侨银行继续看多布伦特原油走势

霍尔木兹遇袭与美撤伊油豁免推升原油安全溢价，美元走强、债券收益率上行、黄金承压。OCBC预计布油温和回落至2026年末75美元，建议卖虚值看涨并配长期看跌对冲。

8

Jul 2026

受中东紧张局势影响且日本央行鸽派立场抑制日元吸引力，美元兑日元延续涨势

中东风险升温与美日政策分化推升美元/日元四连涨，但162.40阻力未破。建议期权做多上行、卖虚值看跌收权利金，警惕日本当局干预冲击。

8

Jul 2026

人工智能推动美国小企业创办，提升初创企业更替率并重塑科技行业以外的招聘格局

市场误读AI：美国优势在于AI降低最小有效规模，催化小企业加速创立并扩散，非线性对冲岗位替代。小企占GDP44%，新设企业+24%；建议做多罗素2000、配置工业与可选消费期权。

8

Jul 2026

欧元/美元上行动能减弱，波动率回落转入区间震荡，期权卖方面向权利金收益布局

欧元兑美元冲高回落，动能趋弱转入区间震荡，预计1.1360-1.1450整理。美欧政策趋同、波动率收敛，衍生品可考虑卖出宽跨式期权收取权利金。

8

Jul 2026

瑞典5月工业产出增速放缓，加大瑞典克朗及瑞典央行政策前景压力

瑞典5月工业产出环比仅增0.2%，较前值4.2%断崖式降温；制造业PMI跌至48.5确认收缩，克朗承压。市场押注央行转鸽，布局EUR/SEK多头及OMXS30看跌期权。

8

Jul 2026

瑞典5月工业产出增速降温，瑞典克朗与股市面临上行压力

瑞典5月工业产值环比骤降至0.6%，叠加PMI收缩、通胀回落，增长动能走弱信号强化：SEK贬值风险上升，建议布局EUR/SEK看涨并对冲工业股回调。

8

Jul 2026

5月瑞典工业产出增速放缓，令瑞典克朗及利率前景蒙阴

瑞典5月工业产出同比升6.9%低于前值，叠加6月PMI跌破荣枯线与通胀回落，经济降温强化：央行加息概率下调，克朗承压，工业股面临回撤风险。

8

Jul 2026

阿联酋金价小幅走高，受美联储降息预期、美元走软及避险需求支撑金价

阿联酋金价周三续涨至487.15迪拉姆/克、托拉5682.11；美元走弱与降息预期叠加地缘风险、央行与投机净多加码，黄金上行行情或再加速。

8

Jul 2026

巴基斯坦金价上涨：美元走弱与央行购金提振黄金需求

巴基斯坦金价周三上行，金条至PKR36941/克、托拉至430883。美元转弱、降息预期升温叠加央行持续增持与地缘风险，金价多头逻辑强化。

8

Jul 2026

受强势美元与美联储政策立场影响，GDX看跌趋势料将延续，矿业股持续承压

警惕续跌：GDX自3月高点看跌序列未完，90美元下方偏空，斐波延展目标59-33美元支撑带。美元走强、利率高企与期权情绪偏空共振。

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