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17

Jul 2026

美国新屋开工数超预期达142.7万套，推动美债收益率上行，利好住宅建筑商股及美元交易

美国6月新屋开工年化142.7万套大幅超预期，显示地产与经济韧性；或推升美债收益率、支撑美元，并利好建材与住宅建造商板块。关注利率与期权交易。

17

Jul 2026

美国6月进口价格上涨，强化“利率高位维持更久”的收益率押注及美元走强预期

美国6月进口价格指数环比升0.3%，较预期跌0.7%反转，输入性通胀粘性强化“高利率更久”预期；债券承压、美元趋强、股指波动抬升，衍生品对冲交易窗口开启。

17

Jul 2026

美国6月出口价格下跌0.6%，强化降息预期并令美元承压

美国6月出口价格指数环比降0.6%超预期，释放通胀与外需降温信号；美联储降息窗口或提前。关注联邦基金期货、美债期权、多欧元空美元，谨慎工业品。

17

Jul 2026

美国新屋开工回升引发对更高收益率的押注，提振住宅建筑商股票、美元及铜价交易

美国6月新屋开工环比由-15.4%急转至+19%，释放需求回暖信号。或推升美债收益率、强化“高利率更久”，利好建材及房企，并支撑美元与铜价。

17

Jul 2026

在科技股主导的避险资金流推动下，美元企稳；美国经济数据及GDPNow模型支撑美元维持强势买盘

科技股抛售触发避险回流，美元收复部分跌幅后企稳并具续升动能；零售与通胀组合支撑韧性。关注密歇根预期与GDPNow，配置美元看涨、风险逆转及欧元看跌、跨式。

17

Jul 2026

在印度央行支撑下，卢比走强；油价上涨及红海紧张局势支撑美元/印度卢比汇率

周末前RBI克制干预推升卢比、USD/INR回落96.30；油价与红海风险抬升输入性通胀，美元受避险支撑。策略：做多USD/INR价差及MCX原油。

17

Jul 2026

英镑跌势延续，英国领导层更迭与劳动力数据公布在即；通胀忧虑升温推动美元走强

英镑连续两日回落，GBP/USD至1.3427，政治交接与财相人选扰动情绪；下周就业与CPI成关键催化。守住20日EMA1.3380偏多，阻力1.3515、支撑1.3300；美元受通胀与油价支撑。

17

Jul 2026

欧元区通胀率稳定在2.8%，强化欧洲央行对降息的谨慎立场

欧元区6月HICP同比2.8%持平且符合预期，通胀黏性凸显：欧央行降息步伐或放缓，利率“更高更久”定价强化，关注Euribor与Bund策略。

17

Jul 2026

欧元区核心通胀率稳定在2.4%，令市场对欧洲央行降息押注维持渐进路径

欧元区6月核心HICP同比持平2.4%并符合预期，基础通胀韧性削弱激进降息押注。市场波动或回落，关注Euribor期货、卖Bund期权及欧元、股指期权theta策略。

17

Jul 2026

欧元区6月核心HICP同比持平于0.2%，进一步强化欧洲央行渐进式宽松预期

欧元区6月核心调和HICP环比持平0.2%，潜在通胀压力稳定；市场押注欧央行渐进降息，隐含波动率或收缩。关注期权卖方策略、曲线陡峭化及欧元下行风险。

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