Live Updates

17

Jul 2026

美国工业生产不及预期，推动降息押注升温并引发跨资产对冲策略布局

美国6月工业产出环比仅增0.1%，低于预期0.2%释放制造业降温信号。关注降息预期升温：倾向做多美债/SOFR期权，配置股指期权及欧元、日元看涨。

17

Jul 2026

油价反弹提振加元，美元/加元走弱；美联储加息押注支撑美元

油价周涨近12%叠加霍尔木兹风险，USD/CAD逼近1.4022月低、连跌两周；加拿大央行偏紧支撑加元，但DXY企稳添反复，期权对冲把握波动收益。

17

Jul 2026

伯纳姆推介亲商工党施政纲领，强调战略性干预之际英镑维持平稳

伯纳姆定调工党“亲商+战略行业公共干预”，英镑维持1.3430附近。政治过渡或压缩短端波动，但价格上限带来监管风险；建议公用事业保护性看跌与英镑牛市价差布局。

17

Jul 2026

欧元/英镑反弹至0.850，英镑涨势减弱；荷兰国际集团预计将逐步上行至0.870

英镑反弹动能衰竭，EUR/GBP回升至0.850仍较公允价值低估1.5%。市场计入英央行年内再紧35bp或错定价，政局更迭或抬升波动，建议配置EUR/GBP看涨、英镑看跌及多SONIA期货。

17

Jul 2026

美国进口价格6月加速上涨至7.1%，强化市场对美联储“更高、维持更久”利率路径的预期

美国6月进口价格指数同比升至7.1%、环比加速，海外通胀压力抬升或促美联储高利率更久；警惕债汇波动，战术配置DXY看涨、2年期美债及纳指看跌期权对冲。

17

Jul 2026

美元保持坚挺，中东局势升级、美国强劲经济数据及油价冲击风险支撑美元指数

中东冲突升级与油价上行风险叠加强劲美国数据，美元企稳并展现避险韧性。建议暂停做空美元，配置短期限美元看涨期权、能源与权益看跌对冲。

17

Jul 2026

美国出口价格通胀降温：6月指数同比上涨10.2%

美国6月出口价格指数同比升10.2%，较前值回落1个百分点但仍双位数；出口端通胀上行动能减弱，价格压力边际缓释，降温信号初现。

17

Jul 2026

美国6月建筑许可下降3%，强化降息预期并加剧对住宅建筑商的压力

美国6月建筑许可环比降幅扩大至-3%，许可储备回落显著，指向地产投资降温与经济动能走弱。降息预期升温，美债收益率或下行，期权布局宜偏多TLT、偏空XHB。

17

Jul 2026

加拿大5月外资证券投资净流入不及预期，引发对加元需求的质疑

加拿大5月外资组合投资仅79亿美元，较预期缺口73.1亿：跨境需求降温恐压制加元并推升股债波动，衍生品宜偏防御配置、强化对冲。

17

Jul 2026

美国建筑许可发放量不及预期，进一步释放楼市活动降温信号

美国6月营建许可环比升至136.7万套但不及预期，住房景气降温信号强化。高融资成本或压制供给管线，利率下行预期升温；关注国债/ITB期权及木材空头。

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