Live Updates

17

Jul 2026

WTI原油维持在79美元附近，市场关注美伊紧张局势及关键技术位

WTI连续四日高位盘整，报79美元附近；美伊地缘风险及霍尔木兹通行成关键催化。技术面偏区间震荡：上破80看82.48/87.25，下方支撑77.30/76.59。

17

Jul 2026

富国银行预计美联储将维持利率不变直至2027年，受此影响美国国债收益率曲线温和牛市陡峭化

富国银行预计美联储基金利率3.50%–3.75%维持至2027年末，10年期美债收益率2026年近4.35%、2027年回落4.30%；建议配置牛市陡峭化，并以期权对冲通胀冲击风险。

17

Jul 2026

在美元走强和油价上涨支撑美联储“更高更久”预期之际，金价持续承压于4,000美元下方

黄金冲击4000美元受阻，美元走强叠加油价周涨逾10%推升能源通胀预期，市场押注美联储更久高利率且12月前再加息概率75%；技术面仍偏空。

17

Jul 2026

布伦特原油瞄准首次收于85美元上方，中东紧张局势威胁红海航运通道

布伦特油价逼近85美元并或月余首度站稳；中东地缘风险、红海航运扰动推升通胀粘性与降息预期重定价。建议做多波动率，跨式期权及牛市价差对冲股市回撤风险。

17

Jul 2026

英镑/日元自219高位回落，套息交易吸引力仍存但日元干预担忧升温

英镑/日元高位回调但下行受限：275bp利差支撑套息与趋势延续，干预仅短暂扰动。建议结构性期权逢低布局，待确认突破219再加仓。

17

Jul 2026

美国股指期货下挫，密歇根消费者信心指数公布前中东紧张局势升温引发避险交易

中东地缘风险升温叠加密歇根信心数据前调仓，美指期货普跌、半导体走弱且奈飞盘后挫；关注红海扰动推升油价，配置原油/VIX看涨及科技保护性看跌对冲。

17

Jul 2026

随着市场对欧洲央行加息押注升温，欧元兑英镑反弹逼近0.8500，套期保值收益占优

欧元兑英镑自13个月低点温和反抽重返0.8500，但周线或四连跌。风险偏好回暖叠加押注欧央行9月加息；建议短期买EUR/GBP看涨并以GBP看跌对冲。

17

Jul 2026

欧元/美元在上涨后进入盘整，欧元偏强格局不改，1.1520阻力位仍为关注焦点

EUR/USD冲高回落转入1.1420-1.1465震荡，短期偏多但上行动能存疑；关注1.1520阻力与1.1405支撑。盘整期宜用铁秃鹰，失守则转防御。

17

Jul 2026

美元指数跌破关键斐波那契回撤位，通胀趋缓抵消地缘政治引发的能源风险

美元指数回落受制100.83，CPI/PPI走软降温加息预期；美伊紧张推升能源通胀对冲支撑美元。关注100.55破位下看100.22/99.72；突破101.00或指向101.80，建议区间用跨式/价差。

17

Jul 2026

欧元/加元在1.6070附近企稳，欧元区通胀降温与油价走强支撑加元

警惕EUR/CAD下行：欧元区通胀降温或促ECB偏鸽，欧元承压；油价受中东风险支撑提振加元。建议中旬到期看跌或熊市价差，目标1.5900。

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