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Live Updates

31

Jul 2026

密歇根大学调查显示：美国五年期通胀预期稳定于3.3%，促使美联储继续维持限制性政策立场

密歇根大学7月五年期通胀预期持平3.3%并符合预期，通胀冲击风险暂缓；但高于2%目标或强化“更高更久”，利率、美元支撑偏强，期权策略可布局。

31

Jul 2026

美元韧性确立英镑/美元、欧元/美元下行目标，金属与谷物波动风险逼近

实盘解读：英镑/欧元反弹衰竭，DXY韧性指向GBPUSD 1.2680；美元走强或压制金银，期权对冲；复盘USDJPY与AAPL顶部；前瞻8月12日USDA谷物报告，警惕5%—10%波动。

31

Jul 2026

7月轮动冲击亚洲市场，欧洲维持高位；期权资金转向美国科技股与原油

股市领涨轮动致亚洲大幅回撤，欧股凭盈利韧性创新高。建议8月做多美股超大市值科技看涨价差，并以欧股保护性看跌对冲，配合跨式捕捉波动与油价动量。

31

Jul 2026

美联储、英国央行和日本央行维持利率不变，但警示能源、日元及人工智能需求带来的通胀风险

三大央行按兵不动却集体转鹰：表决分歧与指引指向能源、地缘、货币贬值及AI需求推升再通胀。策略：做空SOFR、对冲日元、增配原油期权、押注收益率曲线趋平。

31

Jul 2026

在疑似日本当局干预下，美元/日元剧烈震荡；日本央行转向鹰派提振日元支撑

疑似日本当局干预令USD/JPY急挫后反复，财务省披露干预区间引发规模评估。央行偏鹰上调加息预期，互换9月概率升至40%。建议买入看跌及价差策略布局日元走强。

31

Jul 2026

英镑走软，因市场下调英国央行9月加息概率且中东紧张局势推升美元

英镑全线承压，GBP/USD失守1.3450；BoE未释加息信号致9月加息隐含概率60%降至30%。地缘冲突推升油价与美元避险，衍生品宜偏空并对冲波动。

31

Jul 2026

欧元跌破1.1500关口，受中东局势紧张及市场押注美联储鹰派立场推动，美元反弹

美元空头回补叠加地缘风险及美联储鹰派预期，欧元/美元回落至1.1488；双央行或9月加息推升波动率，期权、黄金看跌及短端利率期货迎策略窗口。

31

Jul 2026

中国7月CFLP综合PMI跌破50，人民币与股市承压加剧

7月CFLP综合PMI跌至49.3、制造业与非制造业双双失守荣枯线，需求与订单同步走弱。政治局承诺增量稳增长，或利好国债、利空人民币与股指衍生品。

31

Jul 2026

美元/加元反弹，美元走强，美联储加息押注盖过加拿大GDP增长表现

加元受5月GDP超预期短暂提振后回吐，美元因美联储“更久更高”预期走强，USD/CAD反弹至1.4045；可布局牛市看涨价差并卖出价外Put增收。

31

Jul 2026

日本央行将利率维持在1%，植田和男立场转鹰；道明证券预计12月加息并警示干预风险

日央行8:1维持政策利率1%，植田措辞偏鹰，日元反应平淡但干预风险犹存。德意志证券预计12月加息25bp，美元/日元宽幅震荡，建议区间期权与做多波动。

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