Live Updates

4

Aug 2026

印尼6月贸易逆差收窄，进口激增重燃“双赤字”忧虑，施压卢比市场

印尼6月贸易逆差收窄但进口攀升，双赤字风险抬头；央行或维持6.25%高利率稳汇率。交易员宜布局IDR与IRS波动、短端期权对冲，工业化与能源项目仍具长期机遇。

4

Aug 2026

加元走势坚挺，美元/加元跌破1.3970，逢反弹看跌期权受青睐

加元在美元走弱下仍跑输G10，但美加数据差收敛利多后市。丰业估USD/CAD公允1.3930；跌破1.3970或触发止损下探1.38，反弹1.41宜买入看跌期权布局回落。

4

Aug 2026

英镑兑美元小幅走高；美国数据疲软及油价下跌拖累美元走势

美元走软叠加WTI急跌，英镑兑美元反弹至1.3451；JOLTS回落压低加息定价。市场聚焦非农及英财政，期权策略布局上破1.3526。

4

Aug 2026

欧元/美元守住1.1500上方，霍尔木兹海峡重启传闻提振美元情绪，市场聚焦美国就业数据

美伊磋商或促霍尔木兹重开，油价下挫至三周低点，提振欧元但难续升；JOLTS走弱叠加非农在即，EUR/USD或回撤至1.1450，期权对冲受关注。

4

Aug 2026

白银徘徊于59.50美元附近，霍尔木兹海峡重启讨论降温避险需求，美国数据待公布

白银于59.50美元附近上行后回落，霍尔木兹重开预期促风险溢价回吐；然能源成本下行与美元走弱预期支撑工业需求。关注60阻力、58.37支撑。

4

Aug 2026

三菱日联金融集团预计日元走强将提振亚洲货币，韩元料受益最大

MUFG称日元为亚洲汇市核心驱动，若续强韩元将成最大受益者，泰铢、新元敏感度较高；2025年来多数货币β下行，仅韩元逆势上升，衍生品交易机会凸显。

4

Aug 2026

美元/日元走低：美国就业数据转弱、油价回落提振日元，市场关注日本央行会议纪要

警惕USD/JPY续跌：美国JOLTS降温压低收益率、利差收窄；霍尔木兹或重开促油价回落利多日元。关注日银纪要与薪资，期权宜偏空防风险。

4

Aug 2026

多重信号塑造欧元/美元看跌交易策略，欧洲经济数据走弱

多策略共振构建EUR/USD高胜率框架：欧洲经济与通胀走弱或促ECB更激进降息，利差扩至1.8%警示下行。待1.0800日线破位确认，期货做空/买入虚值Put，目标1.0550。

4

Aug 2026

加拿大贸易顺差创四年来新高，黄金和铜需求推动出口创纪录增长

加拿大6月贸易顺差飙至38.6亿加元创近四年高，出口连增并破纪录；黄金铜拉动、能源回落。二季度净出口支撑GDP，设备进口走强。

4

Aug 2026

黄金反弹，霍尔木兹海峡重启通航传闻打压美元与美债收益率，市场静待美国就业数据

霍尔木兹海峡或重开触发风险偏好回升，美元与原油走弱、收益率下行，金价自低点反弹至4,087。JOLTS回落压低9月加息概率；关注ADP/NFP与区间策略。

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