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4

Aug 2026

费城联储主席保尔森称通胀仍偏高，不确定性下货币政策应保持适度紧缩

重磅信号：费城联储保尔森称潜在通胀仍偏高，政策将维持温和限制性且按兵不动；前瞻指引受不确定性掣肘，利率波动或偏低、曲线趋平，能源衍生品宜限定风险。

4

Aug 2026

美国6月工厂订单下滑，强化降息预期并加剧各市场波动

美国6月工厂订单环比降0.3%逆转前势，显著低于预期，折射制造业需求降温与动能分化；降息预期升温，利率下行交易与对冲配置窗口开启。

4

Aug 2026

墨西哥7月消费者信心上升，加剧对墨央行降息的压力并支撑比索套息交易

墨西哥7月消费者信心指数跃升至45超预期，需求韧性凸显。或掣肘央行激进降息、利差维持，比索偏强。关注USD/MXN看跌期权及EWW看涨期权布局。

4

Aug 2026

贝森特暗示就霍尔木兹海峡重开展开磋商，地缘政治溢价回吐令WTI走低

美国财长称霍尔木兹海峡重开谈判或近两日落定，油价与OVX应回落；建议押注地缘溢价出清，布局熊市看涨价差、借方看跌价差，严设止损防挤空。

4

Aug 2026

特朗普团队考虑动用美联储FIMA回购工具支撑日元，并限制对美国国债市场的扰动

特朗普政府拟借美联储FIMA回购便利助日护汇，避免日本抛售美债扰动收益率；美方或动用ESF买日元卖欧元，USD/JPY波动与套息逆转风险上升。

4

Aug 2026

美国与日本出手干预支撑日元，套利交易平仓恐引发全球流动性剧烈波动

美日罕见协同外汇干预支撑日元，纽联储动用ESF售欧；市场聚焦FIMA回购便利为日本提供美元流动性，或缓释套息平仓冲击并提振风险资产。

4

Aug 2026

美元/日元在干预风险抑制反弹之际测试约158附近的200日均线，日本资金面预计充裕

美元/日元收复跌幅并逼近200日均线158阻力；美日协调干预预期限制上行。日本可借FIMA回购以美债质押融美元，抛压有限。策略：反弹逢高做空，买入美元看跌。

4

Aug 2026

美元兑瑞郎回落至0.8100附近，美国就业数据及伊朗相关消息面临近

美元兑瑞郎受风险偏好回升承压回落，0.8100上方企稳乏力。技术面疑似头肩顶，失守0.8040或触发加速下行；本周JOLTS与非农将定价美联储路径。

4

Aug 2026

大华银行认为美元指数将跌破关键均线，但仍受困于97.63–101.64区间

美元指数失守周线云层及55周EMA，多头结构破坏；UOB预计受中长期均线走平影响，后市大概率维持97.63-101.64区间偏弱震荡，期权区间策略占优。

4

Aug 2026

日元因美方干预言论大涨，引发对日本美债持仓的关注及更广泛的市场连锁反应

突发干预预期点燃日元暴涨：美国或动用欧元买入日元，市场转而聚焦日本万亿美元美债持仓与潜在抛售冲击，利率、通胀与风险资产波动再定价。

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