Live Updates

5

Aug 2026

美元/瑞郎跌向0.8080，霍尔木兹外交缓和削弱避险需求，收益率利差支撑美元

USD/CHF连跌至0.8080：霍尔木兹外交缓和压低避险溢价；瑞士低通胀令SNB利率锚定0.00%，美债收益率优势支撑美元，期权可布局反转。

5

Aug 2026

金价攀升逼近4,150美元，美元走软与油价下跌缓和市场对美联储利率预期

黄金连涨逼近4,150美元，美元走弱叠加伊朗局势与OPEC+增产压低油价、抑制通胀预期；但美联储偏鹰表态与就业数据前利率押注仍压制上行。

5

Aug 2026

由于有关重开霍尔木兹海峡的谈判缓解供应担忧且美股上涨，WTI油价下跌并逼近74美元

WTI回吐涨幅至73.80美元，霍尔木兹海峡重启进展削弱供应中断溢价；美原油意外累库强化短期下行风险，期权隐波或回落，关注价差与波动率策略。

5

Aug 2026

印度央行料将维持回购利率在5.25%不变，卢比关注资金流入及美元兑印度卢比关键阻力位

决议在即：RBI料维持回购利率5.25%与数据依赖；通胀4.4%受控但增速预期下调。外资与FCNR互换流入支撑卢比，USD/INR偏空、波动率或收敛。

5

Aug 2026

堪萨斯城联储施密德警告通胀仍令人担忧，并指出人工智能相关支出或成推升价格的潜在驱动因素

堪城联储施密德称通胀仍偏高、政策需更收紧，AI投资或推升黏性压力；市场反应有限但鹰派预期升温，美元上行与利率再定价风险凸显。

5

Aug 2026

干预后欧元/日元反弹，但收益率利差与技术面因素令下行压力仍为市场焦点

欧元/日元干预后反弹至181.90但仍偏空：跌破180或下探179.30/178.82；受欧日利差收窄与波动上升驱动，182上破或反转，183.74设止损。

5

Aug 2026

新西兰失业率升至5.6%，降息预期升温令纽元承压

失业率二季度升至5.6%超预期引爆降息押注：纽元承压、NZD/USD跌至0.5884；就业增速回升与参与率走高难改劳市降温，短端利率下行交易价值凸显。

5

Aug 2026

新西兰薪资增速超预期，提振纽元并强化利率“高位维持更久”预期

新西兰二季度LCI环比升0.7%超预期，工资通胀黏性强化RBNZ偏鹰预期；NZD或受提振。策略：买短期NZD/USD看涨、2Y掉期付固定、做空票据期货并空AUD/NZD。

5

Aug 2026

日本干预支撑日元被视为暂时性措施，期权交易员瞄准美元/日元波动率

日美联合入市短撑日元难逆美元长期强势，USD/JPY波动或抬升；建议把握干预窗口：布局跨式与中长期看涨期权，并以远期锁汇对冲日本进口成本风险。

5

Aug 2026

中国工厂调查显示增长动能降温，强化对央行降息宽松及人民币走弱的押注

民营制造业PMI降至50.9、NBS报49.2，共振指向景气转弱；降息降准及LPR调整预期升温，USD/CNH走高。策略：布局看涨期权与互换付固定应对。

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