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10

Aug 2026

在中东供应风险与供需平衡偏紧背景下，霍尔木兹谈判接近达成协议，WTI油价企稳于79美元附近

WTI亚盘反弹至79.40美元，霍尔木兹重启存疑且袭击频发推升风险溢价；供需转短缺支撑油价。交易者可用跨式/宽跨式布局波动率上行。

10

Aug 2026

日本6月国际收支贸易收支转为1352亿日元逆差，拖累日元前景

日本6月国际收支口径贸易收支由69亿日元顺差逆转为1,352亿赤字，恶化1,421亿；进口成本高企压制日元。关注USD/JPY看涨期权及价差策略。

10

Aug 2026

日本6月经常账户转为923亿日元逆差，不及预期的1.51万亿日元顺差

警惕：日本6月经常账户意外转为923亿日元赤字，较预期1.51万亿盈余大幅走弱，或压低日元、抬升隐含波动；建议布局USD/JPY看涨、对冲JGB收益率上行。

10

Aug 2026

日本7月银行贷款增速放缓，降温市场对日本央行收紧政策的押注并拖累日元

日本7月银行贷款同比增5.4%不及预期，信贷扩张降温削弱加息押注；日元偏弱风险上行，建议布局USD/JPY看涨期权，同时做多10年JGB与日经225。

10

Aug 2026

尽管美国非农就业数据下滑，全球股市仍创历史新高，分化走势加剧并推升对冲需求

非农意外转负且前值大幅下修，宏观走弱与股指新高背离加剧；金银走强、油价回落推升债券。警惕回撤窗口，宜配置防御性期权与波动率多头。

10

Aug 2026

随着加息预期缓和、美国通胀数据公布在即，纳斯达克指数展现相对强势

回撤延续但科技股尾盘托底，QQQ相对跑赢；数据抬升9月按兵不动定价但波动压制多头。热点向多板块扩散，静待CPI/PPI验证通胀见顶叙事。

10

Aug 2026

2026年利差收窄与波动率风险上升之际，套利交易热潮面临逆风

2026年套息交易凭低波动与利差收益走强，但日银加息、欧美降息致利差收窄，叠加夏末流动性偏弱，去杠杆风险升温；速降杠杆、收紧止损并用期权对冲。

9

Aug 2026

美元跌破100关口，黄金测试4381缺口，铜价回调目标指向656支撑位

美元失守100下看99.26/99.00；黄金围绕4381周线定调，站稳或上看4500-4525；铜突破失效聚焦656，失守恐回撤至647-655缺口支撑。

9

Aug 2026

随着黄金ETF激增，亚洲银行提升黄金投资可及性，香港扩展金库保管及清算基础设施

亚洲银行加码黄金产品与仓储，碎片化交易、ETF资金净流入创新高；香港扩清算及金库至2000吨，亚洲定价权抬升，黄金多头与跨市套利机会凸显。

9

Aug 2026

中国7月CPI环比下降0.1%，不及预期，释放通胀走软信号

意外下滑引发关注：中国7月CPI环比降0.1%，不及预期增0.2%，通胀修复动能弱于预期，或映射需求偏弱，扰动短期价格与政策预期。

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