by VT Markets
Aug 17, 2026
澳大利亚周三将公布第二季度工资价格指数（WPI），周四将公布7月劳动力调查，预计整体不会显著改变市场对澳大利亚储备银行（RBA）利率路径的预期。工资增速预计连续第三个季度环比上升0.8%，而同比增速预计从一季度的3.3%小幅回落至3.2%。就业增长预计为+1.2万人，低于6月的+7.63万人；失业率预计连续第三个月维持在4.4%。
市场定价显示，RBA仍存在再行动一次的空间，但加息路径尚未被完全计入。RBA现金利率期货显示，市场对年内最后一次加息25个基点的概率约为60%，这将使现金利率升至4.60%。
尽管如此，澳元仍受到有利的套息环境以及澳大利亚与能源相关的大宗商品敞口的支撑，同时也受益于与人工智能（AI）和国防相关产业链的带动。
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