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Live Updates

19

Aug 2026

欧元/美元逼近1.1600，欧元收益率保持坚挺，市场静待FOMC会议纪要与HICP终值确认

欧元兑美元反弹逼近1.1600，欧债高收益率与美债企稳分化。投资者紧盯FOMC纪要与HICP终值；ZEW改善难掩疲弱，汇价或现战术性做空回撤机会。

19

Aug 2026

英国7月零售物价指数（RPI）同比增速加快至0.6%，强化市场对英国央行（BoE）“高利率维持更久”的押注

英国7月RPI环比升至0.6%超预期，通胀黏性再证；英央行降息预期下修，SONIA与短端Gilts承压，英镑及通胀互换或现交易机会。

19

Aug 2026

随着油价维持坚挺，卢比走弱；印度央行拟提前结束优惠美元掉期操作

油价高企叠加霍尔木兹风险溢价，USD/INR弱势徘徊95.75附近；RBI提前关闭FCNR(B)优惠掉期或收紧流动性，期权布局看向96.12/96.46，同时警惕干预。

19

Aug 2026

在油市紧张局势推升美债收益率、市场加大对美联储加息的定价并强化美元之际，黄金跌破4,450美元

警惕拐点：金价受制4,450美元且低于200日均线，或回撤4,292；油价因霍尔木兹风险走强推升通胀，美债长端收益率创高，美元指数于99.40反弹。

19

Aug 2026

英国通胀加速升至2.9%，核心通胀持稳于2.6%，英镑走强

英国7月CPI同比升至2.9%、核心2.6%偏强，通胀黏性抬升加息预期并推升英镑；油价上行或再推升物价，市场预期9月BoE政策趋紧。

19

Aug 2026

澳大利亚工资增速稳定在3.2%，市场权衡澳洲联储提前降息可能性

澳洲Q2薪资价格指数同比3.2%持平预期，薪资压力续降。RBA偏鹰压力缓释，衍生品或上调年内降息定价：做多3/10年国债期货、布局AUD/USD看跌及ASX200看涨价差。

19

Aug 2026

全球收益率走高限制涨幅、地缘政治支撑需求，金价企稳于4,335美元附近

金价4,335美元震荡企稳，全球长端收益率飙升压制无息资产；油价与霍尔木兹风险托底通胀对冲需求。关注4,385阻力，4,210/3,915支撑，宜区间波动策略。

19

Aug 2026

欧元/日元在184.70附近受阻：均线阻力叠加日本央行收紧预期与欧洲央行降息影响

EUR/JPY于184.70阻力带动能受限，50/100日SMA共振压制。上破184.73或冲185及187.47；跌破200日SMA184.05恐探182.05/179.37，期权两手备战。

19

Aug 2026

随着美元需求上升，纽元/美元在0.5870附近小幅走低；市场聚焦美联储会议纪要

纽元/美元徘徊0.5870下方，强势美元与霍尔木兹风险压制风险偏好。聚焦美联储纪要、澳就业及PBoC决议；技术面弱势，建议偏空并布局短期期权。

19

Aug 2026

特朗普称与伊朗谈判已无可能，美国实施封锁令原油期权市场风险溢价上升

特朗普否认与伊朗谈判，海上封锁持续、霍尔木兹通航但地缘风险溢价攀升。配置布伦特/WTI波动率上行：买虚值看涨、跨式，并增配黄金与VIX看涨对冲风险。

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