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Live Updates

19

Aug 2026

在政策环境平稳背景下，美元/离岸人民币（USD/CNH）波动率回落、汇价陷入窄幅震荡，期权卖方瞄准权利金收益

USD/CNH陷窄幅横盘，10日波动率降至4%下，短线料守6.7390-6.7470。关注破6.7530/回落6.7300。低波动下宜卖波动策略，警惕数据与央行动向破局。

19

Aug 2026

美元/新元自1.2752低点反弹，但在盘整延续下美元倾向仍偏空

USD/SGD急挫破1.2765后反弹收1.2778，短线转入1.2760-1.2795震荡。中期美元偏弱，或下探1.2740；1.2810/1.2840成关键阻力，空头宜伺机布局。

19

Aug 2026

美元/瑞郎自50日移动均线反弹，0.8135突破后目标指向0.8207

USD/CHF 反弹至0.8127逼近0.8135阻力，RSI偏多；上破看0.8200/0.8207，建议短期买入看涨期权；失守0.8100转空，关注0.8084/0.8049及0.8000。

19

Aug 2026

美元/日元持稳于159.60附近，霍尔木兹海峡紧张局势推升美元需求，尽管美国经济数据喜忧参半

美元/日元159.6企稳上行，霍尔木兹局势推升美元避险需求。美数据分化；技术阻力159.69-159.73，突破或冲160。建议短期看涨期权或牛市价差。

19

Aug 2026

印尼2027年预算拟实现6%经济增长目标，财政赤字率定为2.4%，同时面临印尼盾与债券收益率风险

印尼2027预算以汇率17,500/GDP增速6%与赤字2.40%设定“安全垫”，并假设10年期SBN收益率6.90%；外部利率高企或美元走强或推升融资成本，策略聚焦做多美元、IRS/CCS与国债短仓对冲波动。

19

Aug 2026

美元指数小幅走低，全球收益率同步上行，美联储维持利率不变预期升温

长端美债收益率飙升至近20年高位但DXY反应钝化，受全球收益率同步上行与美联储偏鸽预期压制，技术受阻99.75，策略偏空看99.25/98.75。

19

Aug 2026

道指下跌：美联储加息概率降温，但长端美债收益率飙升，拖累住房市场与股市

美联储12月加息预期降温但长端收益率飙升：30年美债约5.3%创高，道指回落至5.34万。住房数据转弱、油价守85美元；关注纪要与PMI波动。

18

Aug 2026

欧元/英镑回落至0.8550附近，ZEW提振效应消退，英国CPI数据临近

EUR/GBP回落至0.8550，德国及欧元区ZEW超预期未延续欧元强势；英国失业率高于预期、就业放缓，市场聚焦明日CPI。技术面阻力0.8553/0.8559。

18

Aug 2026

在伊朗紧张局势推升美元之际，纽元/美元回落至0.5880附近，市场聚焦美联储会议纪要

美伊紧张推升避险情绪，NZD/USD回落至0.5880；市场下调美联储加息定价至35%。RBNZ加息预期仍存但通胀降温，期权与利率互换对冲波动。

18

Aug 2026

英镑企稳：中东风险对冲疲软美国经济数据，英国CPI与美联储会议纪要公布前市场观望

英镑兑美元1.3547横盘，地缘紧张与数据分化拉锯。英CPI与FOMC纪要成催化剂；建议牛市看涨价差瞄准1.3603，回撤1.3502/1.3414布局，1.3381下止损。

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