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Live Updates

22

Aug 2026

投机者加码日元看空押注，CFTC数据显示净空头头寸进一步扩大

CFTC显示日元非商业净空头由-4.21万手扩大至-5.29万手，空头拥挤推升套利交易回潮；惟警惕日本央行政策转向触发逼空反转风险。

22

Aug 2026

CFTC数据显示：受中国需求担忧影响，投机者扩大澳元净空头头寸

CFTC：投机客澳元净空头扩大至-44.2k，跌破-40k警戒线；叠加中国需求走弱与RBA转鸽预期，AUD/USD下行风险抬升，宜反弹做空并以虚值看跌期权对冲。

22

Aug 2026

硬资产反弹推升金银，美国国债收益率飙升加剧债券市场压力

硬资产周期再起：金银领涨、铜锡油走强引发资本轮动；美债收益率高企叠加联邦债务破40万亿、海外减持，迫使财政部扩容回购保流动性，金4700/5000与银75/100成关键关口。

22

Aug 2026

星展银行预计，在能源成本上升及人工智能需求带动前景改善的背景下，新加坡通胀与产出将回升

星展预期新加坡7月通胀回升至2.4%/2.3%，能源与食品推升，叠加电价上调及中东扰动风险；工业生产或增9%受AI电子拉动，建议布局新元走强、科技期权与对冲供应链。

22

Aug 2026

美元跌破99点，国债回购计划压低收益率并再度引发财政担忧

美元失守99并逼近98.5：美财政部拟回购旧券压低长端收益率，削弱利差支撑；但通胀黏性与杰克逊霍尔、非农修正及PCE或触发“熊陡”与美元反转。

22

Aug 2026

中东紧张局势升级且美元走软提振周度涨幅，金价升至三个月高位

黄金冲高至三个月新高、周涨或超5.6%，受地缘风险与美元走软驱动；服务业PMI强劲、收益率上行及国债回购预期扰动，期权多头瞄准4,650-4,700阻力。

22

Aug 2026

欧元/美元有望连续第四周收涨：美元走软与利差收窄推动欧元逼近1.17

欧元兑美元四周连涨但冲高回落，美元走弱与前端利差收窄支撑基本面；技术面超买提示回撤风险，关注1.1700/1.1800，1.1631为关键支撑与期权对冲位。

22

Aug 2026

德国商业银行称，伊朗紧张局势及能源价格削弱信心，导致德国Ifo指数回落

德国商业银行预计8月Ifo降至86.0，受伊朗地缘风险回升与能源价格上行压制；现况相对韧性但不确定性升。警惕DAX与欧元承压，波动策略或占优。

22

Aug 2026

尽管美债收益率走高，美元指数仍徘徊于99下方，财政赤字担忧与对冲需求升温

美元指数跌破99创5月新低，尽管长端美债收益率反弹仍未修复“美元—收益率”脱钩；市场重估9月加息与债务赤字风险溢价，资金涌向黄金、比特币，警惕PCE与杰克逊霍尔引发波动。

22

Aug 2026

美元/瑞郎企稳，美元收窄跌幅；瑞士央行释放重返负利率信号，美国PMI提振市场情绪

USD/CHF企稳0.8013但周线仍偏弱；SNB暗示或重启负利率压制瑞郎。DXY低位徘徊，PMI分化。央行信号背离、波动上升，建议短期限跨式/宽跨式布局。

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