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22

Aug 2026

美国国债收益率在国债回购及强劲服务业数据推动下反弹，关键通胀事件前市场聚焦

美国财政部上调回购计划叠加服务业PMI超预期，推动美债收益率全线反弹：2年期升至4.24%、10年期至4.474%、30年期至5.276%。PCE、BLS修订及杰克逊霍尔或引发利率再定价。

22

Aug 2026

墨西哥比索升至2024年5月以来高位，美元走软及套息交易推动美元兑墨西哥比索（USD/MXN）承压

墨西哥比索升至5月来高位，USD/MXN跌至16.92；美元走软与275bp利差支撑。墨零售疲弱，Banxico偏鹰；美服务回暖。下周通胀、GDP、PCE与杰克逊霍尔成关键。

22

Aug 2026

星展银行预计韩国央行将加息至3.00%，并上调经济增长及通胀前景

星展称韩央行8月或加息25基点至3.00%，上调GDP/CPI预测；若鹰派按兵不动亦留10月加息。交易思路：空KTB3年、做多韩元、买KOSPI保护性看跌与曲线陡峭化。

22

Aug 2026

美元徘徊于5月低位附近，回购操作压低收益率，PCE数据与杰克逊霍尔年会前市场观望

美元指数逼近阶段低位，长债回购扩容压低美债收益率；金价创新高、油价获地缘溢价支撑。下周PCE、杰克逊霍尔与就业修订或引爆汇率及波动率交易机会。

22

Aug 2026

星展银行预计，随着通胀降温且经济增长不均衡，泰国央行将维持政策利率在1.00%不变

DBS预计泰国央行8月维持政策利率1.00%不变，延续暂停加息；通胀因能源回落至1.9%且仍在目标区间，增长分化下将维持宽松并协同财政护航复苏。

22

Aug 2026

在日本央行加息预期升温、美国PMI数据支撑美元背景下，美元兑日元在159关口附近企稳

美元/日元159附近胶着：日本通胀与景气回暖推升9月加息概率至80%支撑日元；美国PMI走强与回购及制裁改善风险偏好托底美元。关注震荡、隐波上行与期权布局。

22

Aug 2026

CFTC数据显示：投机者将原油净多头头寸增至12.21万手

CFTC持仓报告显示，非商业交易者原油净多头升至12.21万手，较前值9.92万手增2.29万手，投机资金做多动能强化，关注油价波动放大风险。

22

Aug 2026

CFTC数据显示：随着持仓下滑至-1.06万手，投机者转为净空标普500指数期货

CFTC显示标普500非商业净持仓由11.3千手骤降至-10.6千手，投机资金转为净空；叠加8-9月季节性走弱，建议以保护性看跌期权及熊市价差强化对冲。

22

Aug 2026

CFTC数据显示：随着看涨押注增加，投机者将黄金净多头仓位提升至22.22万手

CFTC数据显示，黄金非商业净持仓升至222.2千手，突破22万手关口，投机多头温和回流；降息预期压低收益率，金价上行动能增强，但需警惕高位获利回吐风险。

22

Aug 2026

随着CFTC数据显示英国央行等会议前看空仓位减少，英镑净空头头寸有所缓解

CFTC显示英镑非商业净持仓升至-54.6K，净空收敛，空头押注现疲态；通胀趋稳压制激进降息预期，警惕空头回补驱动GBP/USD修复上行。

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