Live Updates

7

Sep 2026

随着抵押贷款获批量下滑且能源驱动型通胀再度回升，英国央行面临“更高利率维持更久”局面

按揭审批跌至2023年末低位、利率高企压制地产需求；企业信贷仍韧性。能源推升通胀或促英银加息或延长高利率，降息或拖至2027年。

7

Sep 2026

道明证券称加拿大央行采取偏鹰派的暂停加息立场，预计利率将维持不变直至2027年，并上调中性利率预期

道明证券称加央行转鹰派：隔夜利率2.25%或持稳至2026年，2027年两次各25bp上调至2.75%。油价与338条关税推升通胀上行风险；建议布局CORRA、OIS及短端互换期权。

7

Sep 2026

荷兰银行预计欧元区经济增长将保持韧性，能源驱动型通胀反弹加剧欧洲央行收紧货币政策风险

能源冲击下欧元区仍具韧性扩张，ABN AMRO上调2026增速至0.8%。通胀或突破3.5%并强化ECB鹰派，收益率上行；建议做空Bund、买入Euribor看跌，欧元偏多并配置VSTOXX对冲。

7

Sep 2026

德意志银行预计英国GDP在2026年初强劲增长后于7月回落，增长前景保持稳定

德银预警英国7月GDP或环比-0.1%，服务业与工业拖累属短期回调；仍维持2026/27年增速1.1%/1.3%。交易：短期对冲英镑、伺机布局股指。

7

Sep 2026

美元关注美国CPI数据；非农就业回暖重燃美联储9月加息押注，日元强势仍存

日元走强拖累美元后反弹，因8月非农稳健推升9月加息预期；市场聚焦8月CPI、PPI，研判美联储路径并左右美元短期波动。

7

Sep 2026

道明证券预计8月核心CPI保持平稳，受能源价格上涨及关税风险影响，整体通胀或加速升温

TD Securities预计8月核心CPI环比0.19%、同比2.3%，服务拉动、核心商品偏负；总体CPI环比0.37%、同比3.4%受能源推升。关税敏感品下跌假设存上行风险，建议布局SPY跨式、SOFR期权，并以VIX价外看涨对冲波动。

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V.T.M. Integrated Services Limited 于英国注册成立,公司注册号为17416220。注册地址:C/O Greenwoods Legal Services Limited, Queens House, 55-56 Lincoln's Inn Fields, 伦敦,英国, WC2A 3LJ。V.T.M. Integrated Services Limited 代表VT Markets集团内其他持牌实体提供服务,包括但不限于支付服务。本实体不提供受监管的金融产品,亦不提供交易服务。

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