Live Updates

8

Oct 2026

随着利差收窄且美元/日元波动率上升，日元作为套息交易融资货币的角色遭受质疑

美元/日元两度急挫促使市场重估套利融资端。日本央行渐进加息压缩美日利差、抬升波动率，日元融资吸引力下滑；建议转向期权对冲并关注瑞郎。

8

Oct 2026

美联储会议纪要即将公布：在PCE预估值上调、期限溢价维持高位之际，市场低估加息概率

警惕市场误判：纪要难指引下次决策，但潜在通胀与期限溢价抬升，收益率风险高企；法国政治扰动推升美元与黄金，波动或延续。

8

Oct 2026

智利9月录得20.47亿美元贸易顺差，逆势好于持平预期并支撑比索前景

智利9月贸易顺差20.47亿美元显著超预期，或受铜出口韧性支撑，提振净出口与CLP基本面；USD/CLP或承压下行，关注看跌期权与利率衍生品机会。

8

Oct 2026

欧元/波兰兹罗提关注4.40–4.41阻力位，波兰央行释放11月加息风险信号

兹罗提获支撑但EUR/PLN攻坚4.40–4.41：NBP料维持3.75%，行长或释鹰派信号；上破看4.45/4.48，失守4.34或触发深度回调。

8

Oct 2026

尽管技术面提供支撑，但随着市场对美联储加息预期降温，美元短期料受制上行空间

AI与科技资本流入为美元提供结构性底盘，但就业降温、通胀受控及长端利率收紧或促降加息预期；短线涨势受限，宜区间交易、反弹做空。

8

Oct 2026

在市场等待美联储会议纪要之际，英镑兑美元走弱；中东紧张局势推升避险需求

英镑/美元失守1.3200，地缘风险与美债收益率高企支撑美元；市场押注年内再加息85%静候FOMC纪要。关注1.3315阻力、1.3180支撑，宜区间衍生对冲。

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