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1

Jul 2026

欧元在1.14附近停滞，美联储收紧押注盖过欧元区通胀放缓影响

欧元兑美元1.14附近承压，美联储偏鹰定价升温、就业数据成关键催化；欧元区通胀回落令欧央行更趋审慎。政策分化或推升美元，欧元偏弱。

1

Jul 2026

央行推出隔夜流动性工具，市场定价1.25%利率，释放政策锚转向信号

央行推隐含1.25%隔夜流动性工具并投放3000亿元，释放政策锚渐向隔夜利率迁移信号，短端收益率承压、利差收敛与波动上升，人民币或走弱。

1

Jul 2026

星展银行上调新加坡经济增长展望，人工智能动能增强及中东风险缓和支撑扩张

星展上调新加坡中期增长预期，2026/2027年实际GDP预测至4.3%/3.0%；地缘风险缓和降滞胀概率，AI与金融建筑驱动动能，利好STI多头及新元升值交易布局。

1

Jul 2026

美元/泰铢测试33.40阻力位，泰国央行提示干预风险且股市资金外流拖累泰铢

美元/泰铢冲高回落受阻33.40，焦点转向33.20/33.00支撑与61.8%回撤阻力。美元强势、股市外流施压泰铢，央行或干预；建议看涨价差并以短期看跌期权对冲。

1

Jul 2026

美元在101.20附近持稳，鹰派美联储加剧日元压力并打压欧元与黄金

美元指数徘徊101关口，美联储鹰派强化美元内在强势；欧/镑受欧央行与英央行偏鸽压制。警惕日元干预风险。原油、黄金承压，建议期权与期货布局。

1

Jul 2026

金价反弹重返4000美元上方，但受美元与美债收益率走强影响，月度跌幅料将显著

金价周二小幅反弹至4026美元但月跌逾11%；美元走强、收益率上行及加息预期压制。市场押注看跌期权增仓，关注非农，警惕跌向3800-3500。

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