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Jul 2026

日本央行短观数据超预期，强化市场对央行收紧政策的押注，提振日元前景

日本央行短观大型制造业DI二季度升至22，显著超预期，强化工业景气基线并推升政策正常化概率；关注日元走强、JGB收益率上行及股市期权对冲策略。

1

Jul 2026

亚洲货币有望择机反弹，美元升势减弱；数据走软背景下印尼盾料领跑

美元动能或衰减，亚洲货币迎结构性反弹窗口。油价受控缓释外部收支与通胀压力，印尼盾或相对跑赢；可借USD/IDR看跌期权或IDR/USD价差期权布局。

1

Jul 2026

黄金在4,015美元附近企稳，因多哈美伊会谈不确定性叠加美国关键就业数据影响

金价在4,015美元附近横盘，受美伊多哈磋商不确定性支撑；ADP与非农或强化美联储“更久更高”预期、推升美元并压制黄金，期权对冲成关键。

1

Jul 2026

墨西哥5月财政赤字扩大至1760亿比索，加剧比索承压

墨西哥5月财政赤字飙至1,761.5亿比索、较前值大幅恶化，财政可持续性疑虑升温；或推升USD/MXN与隐含波动率，资金外流风险上行，关注衍生品对冲。

1

Jul 2026

爱尔兰消费者信心6月回升，提振内需导向型股票前景

爱尔兰6月消费者信心指数升至62.2，显著高于前值59.4，释放内需修复信号；或提振零售、银行等板块，建议做多爱尔兰、对冲欧股维持中性偏空。

1

Jul 2026

美元/新元上行动能减弱，受大华银行转向中性影响，关注1.2920–1.2950区间

USD/SGD跌破1.2925后动能衰减，短线转中性，24小时料1.2920–1.2950震荡；1–3周区间1.2870–1.2970，长期仍存上破1.3000、上看1.3095机会。

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