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24

Aug 2026

市场关注澳洲联储会议纪要、美国核心PCE物价指数与GDP数据，油价回落、金价走强

高波动周来袭：RBA纪要、美国核心PCE与GDP、加拿大GDP及杰克逊霍尔讲话或重塑美元定价。油价关注85/90阻力与82支撑；金价突破4,650，警惕超买回撤。

24

Aug 2026

加拿大皇家银行警告称，美国50%关税或冲击加拿大出口商，并对加元及债券构成下行压力

RBC警示：美国338条对加出口约5%商品征50%关税，冲击塑料、电机、家具木制品并或外溢CUSMA；加元波动上行，BoC料按兵不动，债券利率下行与产业对冲窗口开启。

24

Aug 2026

MUFG认为，关税升级风险驱动加元走势，美元/加元逼近1.4000

MUFG称，美对加200亿美元商品征50%关税落地令加元承压，走势取决于争端升级与报复风险；油价支撑减弱。建议布局USD/CAD看涨与波动率策略。

24

Aug 2026

霍尔木兹航运股飙升，伊朗原油出口受阻；WTI测试突破，VIX维持低位震荡

霍尔木兹海峡通行量两周飙升近400%，但伊朗原油对亚洲出口近停、运费创新高，供给仍偏紧；WTI酝酿反头肩，上破85.95–87.84或指向100；VIX低位或推升标普至8,000，关注英伟达财报。

24

Aug 2026

美国数据降温与白宫施压支撑美联储按兵不动预期，美元下挫

二线数据指向美国需求与通胀降温，缓解美联储短期加息压力；9月前前瞻指标稀缺，政策转向门槛高，基准情景维持利率不变。特朗普降融资成本施压，美元偏弱下行。

24

Aug 2026

道明证券预计加拿大第二季度GDP将在出口和服务业带动下反弹，提振加元并推高利率预期

TD Securities预计加拿大二季度GDP年化增3.5%超预期，出口与服务业拉动、6月行业GDP环比0.3%。若数据落地或推升加元、抬升短端收益率；关注就业与经常账户。

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