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Live Updates

9

Jul 2026

因捷克央行跟随欧洲央行，克朗走弱，引发国内刺激措施与政策分化的呼声

克朗创新低却与ECB同步收紧？BNY Mellon指通胀分化给CNB更大自主空间，若转向分道扬镳并配合财政刺激，EUR/CZK或下行，期权交易迎机会。

9

Jul 2026

欧洲央行会议纪要指出通胀上行风险，能源价格不确定性下市场对利率预期维持高位

别再低估ECB！纪要显示通胀风险偏上行，HICP与核心通胀顽固，能源若不回落或逼更激进加息；布局更高短端利率、期权捕捉欧元波动。

9

Jul 2026

美联储会议纪要凸显鹰派按兵不动，委员会分歧令市场严阵以待数据驱动波动

重磅来袭：6月FOMC纪要确认“偏鹰派按兵不动”，利率路径50对50分裂；通胀仍高、就业稳，7月加息预期降温但下半年再收紧未排除。

9

Jul 2026

油价下滑，美伊协议加速海湾供应回归；ING预计布伦特原油跌势或延续至2027年

美伊MoU加速波斯湾供应回归，需求偏疲弱压低油价；市场或7月底前恢复正常。ING料布油Q3均80、Q4 74、2027均70，但若霍尔木兹再受扰，或冲100。

9

Jul 2026

墨西哥通胀低于预期，强化市场对央行降息押注，并拖累比索套息交易

墨西哥6月通胀降至3.37%爆冷低预期，Banxico转鸽、8月降息概率飙升；短端掉期或受益。利差收窄警惕比索走弱，股市或获支撑。

9

Jul 2026

墨西哥6月通胀大幅回落，市场押注央行降息与比索走弱

墨西哥6月通胀意外更弱：环比-0.27%远低预期-0.13%，去通胀加速。Banxico或提前降息，OIS押注8月85%。比索承压，USD/MXN看18.75；股市与IPC期权受益。

9

Jul 2026

墨西哥6月核心通胀低于预期，强化市场押注央行降息并拖累比索

墨西哥6月核心通胀仅升0.24%逊预期，潜在压力降温成Banxico降息“绿灯”。利差收窄恐压比索，USD/MXN或上探18.75；策略：收固定、买看涨期权布局。

9

Jul 2026

中东紧张局势扰动中东欧市场，波兰央行维持中立，匈牙利福林领跌抛售

中东紧张推高通胀不确定性，CEE利率与外汇集体重新定价。波兰央行中性维持5.75%，市场转向“更久不降”。福林因净多头与鸽派暴跌，EUR/HUF飙升，回落或现战术期权机会。

9

Jul 2026

纽元/美元在新西兰联储加息后走强，但中国数据与避险美元资金流入限制上行空间

纽元/美元因RBNZ加息走高，但中国通胀走弱与美伊紧张推升美元避险，涨势恐受限；RBNZ转鸽或压纽元，建议短期布局看跌期权。

9

Jul 2026

英镑升破1.3400创三周新高，美联储会议纪要令美元承压

英镑连涨突破1.3400创三周高！美元转弱、联储纪要分歧与英财政承诺助攻；CFTC净多头增15%添势，但美通胀与美伊风险或令行情反转。

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