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Live Updates

16

Jul 2026

韩国M2增速5月加快，韩元走强及韩国央行收紧压力升温

韩国5月M2增速升至9.2%，流动性扩张加速，通胀与加息压力升温。韩元或走弱、USD/KRW冲1400；股债波动加大，期权与KTB空单成对冲。

9

Jul 2026

美国能源信息署（EIA）：天然气库存增幅超预期，夏季高温风险与供应过剩交织

EIA天然气库存单周增61B略超预期，总库存达3,252 Bcf、较五年均值高逾350 Bcf压价；但高温推升用电需求。产量强、LNG稳，波动或升，期权跨式可布局。

9

Jul 2026

美元兑新元利差扩大、金管局决策临近，新元前端利率面临上行压力

新元短端利率或迎“补涨”：美新利差破200bp、美元强势与美联储加息预期升温；若USD/SGD守高或MAS 7月不陡化NEER，温和定价恐重估。

9

Jul 2026

美元兑离岸人民币（USD/CNH）动能减弱转入盘整；交易员关注6.8080突破及区间信号

USD/CNH 升势降温转入盘整：短线看 6.7950-6.8100，关键收盘 6.8080；宏观受中国 GDP 偏弱、美国非农强劲支撑美元，投机可卖波动率布局。

9

Jul 2026

欧元/美元走高，美元走软；中东紧张局势升温，央行聚焦通胀走势

欧元/美元趁美元走软小涨，中东停火疑云与霍尔木兹风险推高油价、通胀预期。市场押注欧央行再加息、美联储9月偏鹰，汇市波动或放大。

9

Jul 2026

IMF下调2026年全球增长展望，通胀再度加速升温，提升股市滞胀风险

IMF下调2026全球增长至3.0%、通胀升至4.7%：滞胀阴影笼罩。标普估值27倍动能转弱，科技易回调；建议转防御，布局保护性认沽与VIX看涨期权。

9

Jul 2026

美元/加元守在1.4170附近，油价走软拖累加元，美元走低

美元/加元困在1.4170：美元转弱抵消油价回落对加元拖累。市场押注加央行或年底转紧，加息概率升至60%。低波动或利好卖期权策略。

9

Jul 2026

美国就业市场松弛被劳动参与率下滑掩盖，失业率骤升风险上升

表面失业率稳，其实美国劳市更弱：参与率跌至61.5%压低失业率，隐性闲置或令真实失业率近5%。非农仅增11万，美联储或更鸽，宜布局波动与防御。

9

Jul 2026

星展指出：地缘政治推升亚洲收益率，印度国债现战术性久期机会

地缘政治推升亚洲收益率，DBS 反而看好印度国债回调是宏观过度反应：通胀与政策稳、外资净流入强。建议趁10年期上行加仓久期，期货/期权布局反弹。

9

Jul 2026

美元/日元回落，美元走软提振日元，市场聚焦干预风险与油价推升通胀

美元/日元回落至162.45仍贴40年高位，东京随时干预成最大黑天鹅。利差、油价与美联储加息预期撑美元，宜买短期价外看跌期权防突袭。

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