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Live Updates

30

Jul 2026

澳元/美元下滑，市场押注美联储加息及油价波动推升美元，澳洲通胀疲弱构成压力

AUD/USD 冲高回落至 0.6900 中段：美元避险需求回升、澳洲通胀偏软削弱 RBA 加息预期。技术面偏空，关键看 0.6925/0.6900 破位。

30

Jul 2026

金价在4100美元遇阻回落，美元走强及市场押注美联储加息抑制需求

金价冲高4,100美元受阻回落，美元转强与年底再升息预期压制无息黄金。美伊冲突推油价、通胀忧升温。聚焦GDP、PCE；技术偏空，建议反弹做空。

30

Jul 2026

日本警示不设上限的预算申请，美元兑日元在波动风险下守在163.5附近

日本取消预算申请上限引爆市场想象：初始支出或更大，美元/日元报163.47。财政扩张与央行加息、干预风险交织，建议短跨式、敲出期权与限损价差布局波动。

30

Jul 2026

澳大利亚第二季度出口价格加速上涨，支撑澳元并降低降息预期

澳洲第二季出口价格指数按季劲升1.1%，动能显著加速；资源需求韧性推高贸易条件，AUD或走强，RBA降息预期降温，债市或重新定价，收益率曲线更陡。

30

Jul 2026

WTI跌破83美元，联储按兵不动，中东局势紧张搅动油市

WTI回落至82.8美元、布伦特挫近5%，联储按兵不动引发获利了结；但EIA去库716.7万桶显紧张。地缘风险未散，期权偏多布局或迎反弹。

30

Jul 2026

鹰派美联储按兵不动，欧元区GDP与欧洲央行政策分歧来袭，EUR/USD严阵以待波动

EUR/USD 逼近 1.1465，Fed 偏鹰暂停令美元坚挺，反对票暗示波动将放大。德国/欧元区 GDP 或引爆 40–60 点冲击；短期期权跨式抢行情，反弹 1.1550 逢高买入看跌。

30

Jul 2026

日本海外债券资金外流7月加剧至8110亿日元，凸显支撑日元的资金回流趋势

日本7月净海外债券投资恶化至¥-8114亿，资金回流加速。日元或获强买盘，建议布局JPY看涨期权；同时可做空美债及JGB期货，押注收益率上行。

30

Jul 2026

美联储维持利率不变，Warsh强硬言论推高美债收益率曲线，9月加息概率下滑

FOMC 9-3按兵不动，Warsh“制度转变”冲击市场信心，9月加息概率降至65%。美债曲线陡峭化、长端通胀抬头；布局做空长债、SOFR看跌与卖前端波动。

30

Jul 2026

胡塞武装考虑对红海航运征收过境费，油价因曼德海峡附近封锁威胁而飙升

胡塞拟对曼德海峡商船征费、加码红海封锁，意图设“国际水道通行费”先例并施压美国；WTI跳涨6%至83美元，关注短期期权、价差与布伦特机会。

30

Jul 2026

英镑兑日元反弹重上218，因美联储决议削弱美元，干预风险仍挥之不去

英镑兑日圆重返218.00并升至218.50，美元转弱与风险偏好助攻；RSI偏多但警惕日本干预。关注219/220阻力、218支撑，衍生品宜多头布局并严控风控。

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