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Live Updates

13

Aug 2026

英镑小幅走高，疲软的美国PPI削弱美联储加息押注，美元指数跌破100

美国PPI降温拖累美元，英镑趁势反弹至1.3503；市场押注9月美联储暂停概率60%。关注英美数据波动，策略可用牛市价差并设关键支撑止损。

13

Aug 2026

美国CPI趋稳，联储加息概率回落，美元维持区间震荡，套利交易获支撑

美国CPI符合预期，9月加息概率降至40%，美元区间震荡、风险资产续涨。套息仍可做但防日元干预；警惕美债长端上行，宜用期权对冲与短期限收租策略。

13

Aug 2026

美国四周期国库券收益率下滑至3.625%，强化市场对美联储启动降息周期的预期

美国4周期国库券中标收益率降至3.625%（前值3.64%），融资成本微降。市场押注美联储续降息，SOFR近月期货与短端期权或受益，曲线陡峭化交易机会浮现。

13

Aug 2026

美元/加元守在1.3940附近，疲软美国数据抵消油价走软与加元疲弱影响

美PPI与失业金偏软压美元，但WTI跌破80美元拖累加元，USD/CAD守1.3940区间拉锯；期权宜做区间收权利金，警惕Fed鹰派促破1.3990。

13

Aug 2026

英国第二季GDP优于预期，AI带动投资支撑增长，但经济放缓为英镑前景蒙上阴影

英国Q2 GDP环比0.4%亮眼，ICT/AI投资撑盘；但下半年逆风增、增速料仅0.1%，英镑或回调。策略：GBP/USD认沽、receiver掉期、做多gilts，并趁FTSE100低波买跨式。

13

Aug 2026

印度CPI受食品成本推动小幅上升，市场料印度央行维持回购利率在5.25%不变

印度7月CPI升至4.45%再超RBI中点，食品通胀5.52%成导火线。机构料回购利率5.25%继续按兵不动，但“暂停多久”分歧；关注1年OIS对冲年末收紧。

13

Aug 2026

IREN凭借NVIDIA Exemplar Cloud认证及微软Horizon 1交付，争取AI基础设施增长

IREN 押注“挖矿+AI”双引擎：获 NVIDIA Exemplar Cloud、Horizon 1 交付微软，HPC 加速放量。技术面疑 ABC 调整完；看涨期权与牛市价差或抢先布局。

13

Aug 2026

英国GDP超预期，德银料下半年在能源账单与预算风险下放缓

英国GDP春季按季增0.4%，上半年年化2%领跑G7；但能源账单与油价高、预算不确定性将拖累下半年仅0.1%。英镑、利率与股指波动交易机会浮现。

13

Aug 2026

美元/日元逼近160，东京支持日本央行更快加息，期权偏向日元升值方向

USD/JPY徘徊160下方：日本加快升息令美日利差收窄，财政风险溢价趋稳或促日圆修复。衍生品可布局看跌期权/价差，目标152，并用障碍期权防突发干预。

13

Aug 2026

美国核心PPI低于预期，强化降息押注并提振风险偏好

美国7月核心PPI仅升0.2%低预期，通胀降温信号再现：利率期货宜偏多SOFR，标普期权做看涨价差；美债利率下行或压美元，可卖DXY买欧元看涨。

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