Live Updates

27

Aug 2026

欧元跌破1.1650，美国PCE数据支撑美元，市场静待美联储主席沃什讲话

欧元续跌，EUR/USD失守1.1650，受美国PCE通胀超预期推升美元及加息预期；FedWatch显示9月加息概率36%持平。市场聚焦ECB纪要与杰克逊霍尔沃什表态。

27

Aug 2026

渣打银行预计加拿大央行将维持政策利率在2.25%不变，并将降息推迟至12月

渣打预计加央行将维持政策利率2.25%，25bp降息延至12月；关税不确定性促其观望。市场隐含至2027年中加息65bp被高估，建议做空加短端利率并买USD/CAD看涨期权对冲。

27

Aug 2026

日元在159.30附近区间震荡，市场静待沃什讲话，央行加息预期升温

美元/日元159.30附近盘整，PCE黏性与美债收益率支撑美元；杰克逊霍尔前隐含波动或抬升、跨式策略升温。日央行9月加息预期升至57%，日元看涨与逢高做空布局受关注。

27

Aug 2026

市场预计欧洲央行9月加息至2.50%，随后或维持利率不变直至2027年

重磅：欧洲央行料9月最后一次加息25基点，存款利率至2.50%并维持至2027年；增长韧性削弱降息需求，基础通胀可控，风险总体均衡。

27

Aug 2026

受美元走软影响，比特币与黄金走高，ETF资金流入与监管因素推动走势分化

8月美元走弱推升黄金与比特币，但联动不对称：金价三个月新高，BTC月涨28%破8万美元。ETF净流入与SEC新框架成核心定价变量，策略宜期权对冲。

27

Aug 2026

土耳其里拉跌破48.10关口，通胀预期超出央行预测

土耳其通胀动能仍超2%环比，年末CPI预期上调至29.5%高于央行28%，预期锚定失效加剧里拉破48.10贬压；关注USD/TRY期权、NDF及互换收益率上行交易机会。

27

Aug 2026

英伟达财报提振股市情绪，德意志银行称科技股主导的反弹仍有空间

英伟达业绩超预期并上调指引提振风险偏好，带动美股期货与亚洲科技股走强。建议以看涨价差与现金担保卖出看跌布局反弹，同时配置保护性看跌对冲宏观波动。

27

Aug 2026

菲律宾央行如期维持政策利率不变，比索期权波动率回落且掉期收益率持稳

BSP按预期维持政策利率不变，重申通胀目标管理。钩子：波动率或迎收缩窗口。PHP隐波料下行，区间策略与短期限卖方占优；IRS收益率趋稳，PSEi权重股看涨需求或升温。

27

Aug 2026

印度卢比走弱，PCE数据后美元走强；Warsh讲话前美元/印度卢比在95.50附近企稳

印度卢比假后走弱，USD/INR自95.40反弹至95.50。美PCE强化通胀忧虑、FedWatch显示9月按兵不动64%。杰克逊霍尔讲话成突破催化，期权跨式布局。

27

Aug 2026

英镑在1.3600下方横盘整理，PCE数据强化美联储加息预期，沃什动向引关注

英镑/美元受制1.3600，PCE强化加息预期支撑美元但受收益率回落与地缘缓和牵制。杰克逊霍尔临近，建议以期权宽跨式、价差押注突破与波率上行。

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