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3

Jul 2026

英国央行调查显示企业价格与薪资预期小幅上升，令短期降息更趋复杂

英国DMP显示企业一年期定价通胀预期升至4.1%、工资预期3.5%，通胀粘性强化。英国央行或维持鹰派，降息预期下修；关注卖近端SONIA、做多英镑及期权对冲波动。

3

Jul 2026

金价突破4,100美元，疲弱美国就业数据削弱美联储加息预期，TD将目标价上调至4,280美元

就业数据走弱叠加能源价格回落，金价突破 4,100 美元/盎司；TD 证券指向 4,280，3,900 构筑强支撑，5,300 目标或延至明年。

3

Jul 2026

澳元/美元自0.6943冲高回落，UOB转为中性，提示区间行情及低波动率期权交易

AUD/USD冲高回落收0.6923，UOB上调至中性：短线料0.6895-0.6945、未来数周0.6870-0.6980震荡；隐波降至8.5%，卖宽跨/铁鹰收权利金机会凸显。

3

Jul 2026

意大利5月零售销售增速加快，提振欧元并推高债券收益率预期

意大利5月零售销售同比升至2.2%超前值，消费韧性强化。股市或利好可选消费、FTSE MIB上破可期；通胀预期升温，BTP收益率承压；欧元偏多。

3

Jul 2026

欧元区HCOB综合PMI重回荣枯线，支撑欧元并推升维持利率不变预期

欧元区6月HCOB综合PMI升至50重返荣枯线，私营部门由收缩转为边际扩张；超预期或促ECB维持利率，支撑欧股与欧元，压制德债。

3

Jul 2026

意大利5月零售销售超预期，提振欧元区需求韧性并考验欧洲央行降息预期

意大利5月零售销售环比增0.2%超预期，消费韧性边际改善，或削弱欧央行短期再降息预期：EURIBOR卖虚值看跌、EUR/USD配看涨，温和利多BTP与意股。

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