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3

Jul 2026

德国HCOB综合PMI优于预期，提振欧元并抑制DAX波动率

德国6月HCOB综合PMI升至49.5超预期，逼近荣枯线释放触底信号；上修增长预期，DAX尾部风险降、欧元获支撑，Bund收益率承压上行，VDAX或回落。

3

Jul 2026

欧元小幅走高，市场对美联储加息预期降温令美元承压；关注焦点转向ISM非制造业数据

非农大幅走弱促Fed加息定价下修，美元指数回落、欧元升至1.1455。低波动下建议买入EUR/USD看涨期权，聚焦ISM服务业与波动率上行风险。

3

Jul 2026

法国服务业PMI不及预期，收缩加剧，欧元、CAC 40指数及波动率前景趋于黯淡

法国6月HCOB服务业PMI降至46.8不及预期，收缩加剧触发欧元区风险重定价：偏防御配置欧洲资产，警惕CAC40回撤，做空欧元并增配VSTOXX对冲。

3

Jul 2026

法国PMI进一步跌入收缩区间，加大CAC 40指数、欧元及波动率的下行风险

法国6月HCOB综合PMI降至47.2且低于预期，经济动能弱于估值假设；欧股与欧元面临下行，宜配置CAC40看跌、EUR/USD空头及VSTOXX看涨对冲波动。

3

Jul 2026

欧元/加元升向1.6230，欧洲央行按兵不动且油价拖累加元走软

EUR/CAD连续反弹至1.6230，欧元受PMI前走强；油价回落致加元承压。ECB偏观望、BoC降息预期升温，政策分化推升汇价；建议看涨期权/牛市价差。

3

Jul 2026

意大利服务业PMI不及预期，引发市场对富时意大利MIB指数、欧元及BTP-德债利差的谨慎情绪

意大利6月HCOB服务业PMI仅50.2低于预期，扩张近停滞；警惕富时MIB回撤与BTP-Bund息差走阔，欧元承压、VSTOXX对冲价值凸显。

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